OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Why is Anthony Rizzo such garbage in this?

Threnodas · 12-28-2018, 02:56 PM

In the screenshot, Rizzo has 107 AB. If he had just one more HR, say a fly ball that died on the track had gone three feet farther, his ISO would be .037 higher, or .093, and it wouldn't look weird at all. I think a lot of the comments in this and other similar threads come down to underestimating the insanity of small sample sizes, and underestimating how much worse a great player will play when competing against even greater players.

Edit: I ran the numbers for his .159 batting average, too. In 107 AB, the 95% confidence interval for a true .240 hitter's batting average is .159 to .321. So, this example of an awful Rizzo batting line could also just be the 2.5 percentile "worst case scenario" of a true .240 hitter. Is easy to overreact to ugly numbers, but we have to remember how easily some changes in fortune could make them look much different.

12-28-2018, 02:56 PM	#15
Threnodas Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 256	In the screenshot, Rizzo has 107 AB. If he had just one more HR, say a fly ball that died on the track had gone three feet farther, his ISO would be .037 higher, or .093, and it wouldn't look weird at all. I think a lot of the comments in this and other similar threads come down to underestimating the insanity of small sample sizes, and underestimating how much worse a great player will play when competing against even greater players. Edit: I ran the numbers for his .159 batting average, too. In 107 AB, the 95% confidence interval for a true .240 hitter's batting average is .159 to .321. So, this example of an awful Rizzo batting line could also just be the 2.5 percentile "worst case scenario" of a true .240 hitter. Is easy to overreact to ugly numbers, but we have to remember how easily some changes in fortune could make them look much different. Last edited by Threnodas; 12-28-2018 at 03:10 PM.