Quote:
Originally Posted by Josquin
Not quite. On the first 5 card draws, the odds of NOT getting a perfect are 0.999 each. On the 6th card draw, the odds of NOT getting a perfect are dependent on whether there was at least one bronze in the preceding 5. There are many ways in which there could be at least one bronze in the first 5 cards. So more than two-thirds of the time, there is a 0.001 chance that the 6th card could be a perfect.
|
The card that is a guaranteed bronze/gold depending on the pack is disregarded entirely. It does not matter whether it is revealed first, fourth, or sixth in the pack. Only five cards can be anything else than bronze/gold.
__________________
Portland Raccoons, 97 years of excell-.... of baseball:
Furballs here!
1983 * 1989 * 1991 *
1992 *
1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 *
2026 *
2028 * 2035 * 2037 *
2044 * 2045 *
2046 *
2047 * 2048 * 2051 *
2054 * 2055 * 2061 * 2071 * 2073
1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL :
7 NOMURA | RAMOS :
8 REECE :
10 BROWN : 15 HALL :
27 FERNANDEZ :
28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA :
32 WEST :
39 TONER :
46 SAITO
Resident Mets Cynic -
The Mets from 1962 onwards, here.