Quote:
Originally Posted by elutz31
The original question was whether or not it was viable option. If there is a drop in effectiveness pitching at 75%-80% rested I believe it's negligible and 7 or 8 more starts of your better pitchers in my opinion more than makes up for it.
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I'm gonna do some completely unscientific number-crunching and see what I come up with.
Let's say a pitcher loses 10% effectiveness pitching on 4 days rest. And let's give your 1+2 pitchers a value of "3" and your 3-5 pitchers a value of "1".
On 5 days rest over a 20 game stretch, the 5 man rotation provides (3+3+1+1+1)×4=36 pts of value. Over the same stretch the 4-man rotation would provide (3+3+1+1)×0.9×5=36pts of value.
Well dang, I did not expect that to happen, lol. And how much "value" an 8th bullpen pitcher or extra bat is worth to the 4-man rotation option is obviously not factored in.
Anyways, what this says to me is that with the correct roster and assuming that the impact of 4 days rest on a player is relatively small, it would be viable. But if you've only got 1 elite pitcher or if the gap between your elite/not-elite pitchers is smaller or if the effect of 4 days rest on performance is any more substantial it probably wouldn't be worth it.
And IMO the values I proposed are biased to making the 4-man rotation work, so I'mma stick with the 5-man.