[Bub13]

2044 DRAFT and SYSTEM OVERVIEW

It's draft time! Washington has the first overall pick (Again! They also went first in 2041), and is drafting in the top ten for the seventh year in a row. San Francisco, Atlanta, San Diego, and Cleveland round out the top five. (It's interesting to note that three of those teams are currently over .500, and SD and CLE lead their divisions.) OSA has two players ranked with the max 80 potential: P Ryan Schneider and OF Kris Warner. My scout Moises Patino says Schneider is good, possibly closer material, but has him rated a bit lower than the OSA; and while he shares OSA's take on Warner, to my eye he looks like a decent hitter, an occasional all-star, and a good fielder but with a spaghetti arm. And I'll repeat my desire that P Shamar Jackson, a fancy knuckleballer, must fall to me at #23; but he'll probably go in the top five. At #23--where we'll pick--on Patino's board is 2B Chris Ristaino, who I'd be more than happy with, but I feel is underrated and will probably go higher than Patino has him.

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The results are in. Washington, to no one's surprise, takes Kris Warner. They'll be happy with him, assuming they're willing to pay his $4.4M demand. San Fran breaks my heart by taking Shamar Jackson, alas. Atlanta takes pitcher Daniel Hampton, who at 22 looks like he's only a year away from the bigs. Solid pick. San Diego grabs pitcher Tim Chandler, while Cleveland selects 3B David Pettaway. Chandler is a good pick, Pettaway is a reach, a bit lazy and probably no better than a career .250 hitter, albeit with nice power. The White Sox take the wonderfully named Burton Dick, who isn't, and the Astros take Ryan Schneider, the other possible 80-potential draftee.

As for us, I like the top of our draft. The first five picks look to have good potential; after that, it's the usual crapshoot, and most of them will probably never make it past A or AA.

Round 1, 23rd overall: OF Ryan Bayko, 18, high school. I couldn't resist taking Bayko: he's a local boy, from Honolulu! I couldn't go home if I passed him up. He's got a nice power bat, a decent eye, and won't strke out a ton. He's slow, and has the major drawback in that he has no position in the field: no range, average glove, terrible arm. Thank goodness for the DH. (Ristaino was available, but I passed on him for the local talent.) We now have a ton of quality 1B/DH prospects in the system. Too many, really.

Supplemental pick, 35th overall: P Shaun Gates, 20, Fordham. Huge (6'7", 230) and packs a 97 MPH fastball. Right handed, groundballer, and has great intangibles. He'll be a useful back end starter if he develops to his potential; if he overdevelops, he'll be much more.

Round 2, 73rd overall: P Phil Lasky, 22, Long Island U. Like Gates, a New Yorker. His potential is slightly lower than Gates, but he's further along in his development. He's also got a lot of upside at the plate, and can run and play some solid outfield. So, maybe he's my first true two-way player. I'm really not sure where he's going to play once he's signed. He's probably good enough to start in A ball already.

Round 3, 114th overall: P Eric Finnigan, 21, Central Florida. Good stuff, decent control, needs to develop better movement. Fastball/slider/change combo, can hit 98 on the radar gun. High work ethic should help him along, too.

Round 4, 150th overall: P Daniel Newell, 22, Louisiana-Lafayette. Like Lasky, has some nice hitting chops too. In fact, he's a better hitter than Lasky, but unfortunately has an iron glove. Not sure where he'll end up, but I'm betting that not having any top-end pitches is going to put him in the field somewhere. Far enough along to start in A or AA.

Best of the rest: Terry Howard (7th round), 1B with decent potential across the board; RP Nate Carroll (9th), whether or not he develops any control will the test; Blake Cherry (15th), 1B much like Howard, above, but with less power. Beyond these few, there's not much. Despite going for a number of high-intangible players, most have ceilings so low that even with boosts they'll likely never get beyond, say, AA.

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MLB has our system ranked 20th, up from last year's 35th place. Still no superstarts-in-the-making, but plenty of solid future contributors. Three players are ranked in the top 100, and eleven more in the top 200. Like I said, lots of depth.

SS J.J. Simmons, 22: MLB 36 G, .379/.409/.514. Started the season on the DL, and moved into the lineup with Stoneback's and Groff's injuries. Has no power and still needs to develop his eye, but already looks like a solid contact hitter, with speed and a great glove. Also has 17 doubles already, and is on course for a 5 WAR season. Is definitely forcing his way into the lineup full-time. 4th round pick in 2041.

3B Dante Padilla, 20: A ball, 14 G, .115/.193/.135. Sent back for more seasoning to short A ball this week, but still looks to have a bright future. Nice power, decent contact, is above or slightly above average everywhere. His only drawback is a bad glove, but has range and arm enough to still get a look at third. Scouting discovery in 2041 from Mexico.

P Alex Paredes, 16: no stats, international complex. A recent find who's come out of nowhere to be a top prospect. Potential has him as a mid-range starting pitcher, but (so far) with little mustard on his pitches. Took a bit of a hit with the latest scouting report on June 1, but I'm hopeful that he'll rebound, especially as he's got intangibles to burn. Still just 16, so quite the wildcard. Scouting discovery from last December.

P Rick Ramirez, 24: MLB 4 GP, 8.2 IP, 14 K, 4.15 ERA. Still looks like my closer of the future, with big-time stuff. Control finally developed to make him a shoo-in for the big-league pen. Still has a bit of room to grow, and hasn't dominated in his brief stints in the bigs. 1st round pick in 2041.

P Jayden Grant, 21: A ball, 6 GP, 30 IP, 26 K, 4.50 ERA. Also made four terrible starts in AA. Better movement and control than stuff, and hasn't developed his third pitch yet. Works hard, keeps the ball down, and is still just 21, so nothing to worry about yet. But hasn't developed any over the past year. Trade with Richmond in 2042.

P Taylor Barnett, 25: AAA 1 GP, 0.2 IP. Only beginning his rehab stint, after 11 months on the injured list. Patino tells me he's got the best rating of all our pitching prospects, and if he can just stay healthy he could still make it to our rotation. He's a lefty with five tasty pitches, so my fingers are crossed that he'll still pay off. 1st round pick in 2039.

Others to watch: 2B/SS Edward Ospina, 1B Eric Griffin, 1B Chris Sanborn, RP Ben Willard, OF Dillon Ritter, SP Sergio Gil, 2B Jorge Canales, OF Glenn Heath.

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We're doling out $138.6M in salaries this year, on a $160M budget. Next year, we're already slated to spend $156.2M on salaries, with very little increase in the overall budget. Most of the jump is due to Groff's $6.5M bump, and Messinger's $4.3M arbitration estimate raise. Two players--Josh Robertson and John Cannon--have player options coming up this fall. If they choose not to exercise them, we'll be off the hook for $23.4M, but we'll have two large holes in the lineup. We'll also have to decide if we're keeping both Senichi Masuda (due $6M) and Justin Wright (all of his $3.6M is being paid by Toronto), with at least two other 1B/DH prospects coming up from the farm. I'm guessing we won't keep them both. And finally, there's SP Eric Jones, 27, making $9.3M this year and next. He's having a bit of a rebound year but paying out more than 9 million for a 2 WAR player is not a good investment.