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NoOne · 08-19-2018, 03:23 PM

i don't disagree with the logic that a sb, on it's own and ignoring all other factors, is better in front of a more likely slugger-role slot in lineup. in no way did i contradict that common sense logic.

however, it's all a balance and never a rigid rule (a fact, even if we don't agree on eye-balling a particular break-even analysis). a simple break-even analysis with understanding of how important each element is to the whole. a better slugger can easily be more important batting 3-4-5 than 1-2 even though he can steal bases at a high rate. without all the neccessary data, you and i may believe the gap needs to be larger or smaller, but the fundamental logic at play is not up for debate.

i think the perception of how important a sb is being overweighed:

a sb basically turns a single or BB into a 'lesser' double (or a double into a lesser triple etc). the main differences being it's not an "0-0" count by the time they get to 2nd, % failure of stealing, it's not a 'double' as far as rbi production is concerned, and the fact that the SB may not have even been relevant if say a HR was hit or even some doubles in some contexts etc etc. All of these things reduce the return from a SB. maybe "50sb" adds ~10runs on average for a good offense? (i bet that's generous based on results in my non-average offenses) whatever it is, it's a value that can be overcome by other more important factors with a just a modest increase.

based on my typical offenses, i know who can score 130, 140, or even 160 runs in a year on average from the leadoff spot. in my league, ~160average is about as high as it can get with all the attributes you want + a 1000+run offense (can he peak higher or score fewer, sure, but ~average 160 is peak performance possible from fictionally produced players in my league). when they lack stealing ability it only drops by ~10rs or so. easily overcome by just a minor increase in slugging. i've had numerous leadoff guys average ~150's RS without any stealing ability, whatsoever. if they can't maintain ~75% or higher i zero out their stealing strategy as a rule -- no exceptions on my teams except for developement.

an offense that scores fewer runs would only make the break-even gap smaller, i'd guess.

Anecdotal: i just recently made a mistake of going with a ~100sb guy over a different leadoff-player of similar qualities... he's scoring fewer runs and fewer rbi with a similar OBP and higher stealing rate + %success. i made a mistake... he has more sb and isn't 'better' at leadoff

the lesson i learned is that the guy who hits 15-20hr with no sb is far better than the guy who steals 100sb (104 and 24cs, i think? high %, nonetheless) and 5-10hr -- all other other factors similar enough. i.e. slugging easily overcomes a large gap of SB. this mistake i made is costing me more than just the 10rs lost at leadoff, but also 10-15rbi / year. oops.

i like guys that can steal and i do go after them -- all other factors relatively equal --, but it's just an e-peen according to results in my league's statistical environment -- near default, but fewer HR is major difference (5k, not 6k). increasing HR should further exagerrate this, i'd guess. minimizes sb relative to whole picture even more due to increased frequency of HR.

08-19-2018, 03:23 PM	#8
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	i don't disagree with the logic that a sb, on it's own and ignoring all other factors, is better in front of a more likely slugger-role slot in lineup. in no way did i contradict that common sense logic. however, it's all a balance and never a rigid rule (a fact, even if we don't agree on eye-balling a particular break-even analysis). a simple break-even analysis with understanding of how important each element is to the whole. a better slugger can easily be more important batting 3-4-5 than 1-2 even though he can steal bases at a high rate. without all the neccessary data, you and i may believe the gap needs to be larger or smaller, but the fundamental logic at play is not up for debate. i think the perception of how important a sb is being overweighed: a sb basically turns a single or BB into a 'lesser' double (or a double into a lesser triple etc). the main differences being it's not an "0-0" count by the time they get to 2nd, % failure of stealing, it's not a 'double' as far as rbi production is concerned, and the fact that the SB may not have even been relevant if say a HR was hit or even some doubles in some contexts etc etc. All of these things reduce the return from a SB. maybe "50sb" adds ~10runs on average for a good offense? (i bet that's generous based on results in my non-average offenses) whatever it is, it's a value that can be overcome by other more important factors with a just a modest increase. based on my typical offenses, i know who can score 130, 140, or even 160 runs in a year on average from the leadoff spot. in my league, ~160average is about as high as it can get with all the attributes you want + a 1000+run offense (can he peak higher or score fewer, sure, but ~average 160 is peak performance possible from fictionally produced players in my league). when they lack stealing ability it only drops by ~10rs or so. easily overcome by just a minor increase in slugging. i've had numerous leadoff guys average ~150's RS without any stealing ability, whatsoever. if they can't maintain ~75% or higher i zero out their stealing strategy as a rule -- no exceptions on my teams except for developement. an offense that scores fewer runs would only make the break-even gap smaller, i'd guess. Anecdotal: i just recently made a mistake of going with a ~100sb guy over a different leadoff-player of similar qualities... he's scoring fewer runs and fewer rbi with a similar OBP and higher stealing rate + %success. i made a mistake... he has more sb and isn't 'better' at leadoff the lesson i learned is that the guy who hits 15-20hr with no sb is far better than the guy who steals 100sb (104 and 24cs, i think? high %, nonetheless) and 5-10hr -- all other other factors similar enough. i.e. slugging easily overcomes a large gap of SB. this mistake i made is costing me more than just the 10rs lost at leadoff, but also 10-15rbi / year. oops. i like guys that can steal and i do go after them -- all other factors relatively equal --, but it's just an e-peen according to results in my league's statistical environment -- near default, but fewer HR is major difference (5k, not 6k). increasing HR should further exagerrate this, i'd guess. minimizes sb relative to whole picture even more due to increased frequency of HR.