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Timofmars · 08-19-2018, 03:04 AM

I use a spreadsheet I made. It illustrates some of the concepts of why sabermetrics puts better batters at 4th and 5th instead of 3rd, and have a good OBP guy batting 9th and things like that.

Based on player ratings, I try to calculate player's OBP, their ability to hit other runners in compared to the value of their hitting for their personal advancement along the bases, etc. The only thing I don't factor in on the spreadsheet is speed and stealing ability, which I factor in myself. Stealing can sort of make their singles turn into doubles, while speed adds more value to the hits of the batters that follow them, since they are more likely to take extra bases on any hit, plus avoid more double plays or fielders choices. I also calculate a batter's overall hitting value, which tells me how much I should try to get the batter higher up in the lineup to more chance at getting an extra AB in a game.

So when I order my players, I'm trying to put the best overall players higher up so they'll get more ABs in a game before it ends. But I also want my better OBP guys batting just before my best sluggers. So it's a compromise.

Also, there's a big bonus to the value of good hitters in the 4th batting slot in the 1st inning, and to a lesser extent, the 5th batter. Also in the 1st inning, there's a kind of penalty to the value of slugging of the 1st batter (since he's guaranteed to have nobody on base in front of him at that time), and then to a lesser extent the 2nd batter.

For example, in my current lineup, my spreadsheet calculates the number of "expected runners on base" when each batter comes up in the lineup, as follows:

Code:

BO		Other-innings			1st-inning-runners
1		0.624					0.000
2		0.745					0.401
3		0.822					0.756
4		0.816					1.035
5		0.717					0.790
6		0.673					0.673
7		0.712					0.712
8		0.731					0.731
9		0.634					0.634

Gotta run now, so you can figure it out or try it.

08-19-2018, 03:04 AM	#4
Timofmars Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 251	I use a spreadsheet I made. It illustrates some of the concepts of why sabermetrics puts better batters at 4th and 5th instead of 3rd, and have a good OBP guy batting 9th and things like that. Based on player ratings, I try to calculate player's OBP, their ability to hit other runners in compared to the value of their hitting for their personal advancement along the bases, etc. The only thing I don't factor in on the spreadsheet is speed and stealing ability, which I factor in myself. Stealing can sort of make their singles turn into doubles, while speed adds more value to the hits of the batters that follow them, since they are more likely to take extra bases on any hit, plus avoid more double plays or fielders choices. I also calculate a batter's overall hitting value, which tells me how much I should try to get the batter higher up in the lineup to more chance at getting an extra AB in a game. So when I order my players, I'm trying to put the best overall players higher up so they'll get more ABs in a game before it ends. But I also want my better OBP guys batting just before my best sluggers. So it's a compromise. Also, there's a big bonus to the value of good hitters in the 4th batting slot in the 1st inning, and to a lesser extent, the 5th batter. Also in the 1st inning, there's a kind of penalty to the value of slugging of the 1st batter (since he's guaranteed to have nobody on base in front of him at that time), and then to a lesser extent the 2nd batter. For example, in my current lineup, my spreadsheet calculates the number of "expected runners on base" when each batter comes up in the lineup, as follows: Code: BO Other-innings 1st-inning-runners 1 0.624 0.000 2 0.745 0.401 3 0.822 0.756 4 0.816 1.035 5 0.717 0.790 6 0.673 0.673 7 0.712 0.712 8 0.731 0.731 9 0.634 0.634 Gotta run now, so you can figure it out or try it.