[Bub13]

2043/44 Off-Season Report, Part One

Even as the victory parade winds its way through Honolulu and rolls up to our stadium, I'm thinking about next season. A GM's work is never done... With our combined salaries approaching $150M, and likely little or no bump in the budget, not everyone who played a role in this year's championship will be back, sadly. I've already been in talks with several other GMs, so expect anything coming down the pike to get here quickly, well before the Winter Meetings in December--when, frankly, it's harder to make big trades because everyone's already committed so much budget space to chasing free agents.

First things first: some contract updates to report. I've been busy, and not reporting, a number of contracts offered/signed since the late summer. I extended Mike Hunter in September, for ten years at an average of around $18M per season, with a player opt-out after '47 and some team options after that. Despite my grumblings about pricey bullpens, I also re-signed lefty RP Pat Stanley; he'll make $2.5M through '46, with a raise for '47 but a team option, just in case. The final budget-buster was inking OF Mel Carrillo for 10 years, also at an average around $18. He'll start at 11M next year, then escalate until he hits 20M in '47. I also re-sign minor leaguers OF Roberto Mendez and P Gastone Sarretti (more about them later), while picking up the option on RP JS Yee. "But Jim," you say, "that's a LOT of cash to be handing out for next year. I thought you wanted to cut salaries?" Yes, I reply, just be patient and all will be revealed...

In the interim, some staff news: as I said before, hitting coach Danny Espinosa priced himself out of a job (wanting a raise from 83K t0 450K). Funny thing is, a few days after his release he signs with Yakult in Japan for the equivalent of 147K US. Several minor league staff across our system also leave, the only notable one being AAA manager Jose Jimenez, who also wanted more dough than I wanted to pony up. He'd been a farm manager for me the entire history of the franchise, starting in AA and earning a promotion to AAA in 2041. He must be worth something, as the Yankees quickly snapped him up to be their new manager, paying him over a million per for the next five seasons. Good luck, Jose! But...not too good.

Owner Alexis Pagan makes his bi-yearly drop-in, calling from what sounds like a cave in Thailand. He says he's happy we won the title, but he's not that happy since he didn't make as much money as he needed to make, for...reasons. Anyway, he tells me for next year he wants more fans in the seats, more stolen bases (always with the stolen bases), and a top-end prospect in the system. The better news is that he raises my budget by $10M, back up to $160M (where it was in 2042), and figures we can spend $150M on salaries. So...just $10M for everything but big league salaries? How is this guy a successful businessman? Never mind--I don't want to know.

And now it's...ARBITRATION TIME! Nine players go to arbitration, and I decide to make offers to all of them. Additionally, two players are eligible for free agency: C Alexis Mercedes and RP Jeff Tanner. Tanner was making 2.8M, and was excellent in limited use--1.98 ERA over 27 IP--last year, but wants nearly 5M for several years as his next deal. As he'll be 32 next season, and I'm allergic to long-term contracts for pitchers over 30, thanks but no thanks. But he was our team captain, so that's a void that will need filling. Mercedes, on the other hand, has been a solid contributor for several seasons, and hit .253/30/87 last year, pretty good after an awful April-May start. But he's asking to triple his salary, up from 8.3M, which I just will not do. So we tender him the standard 13M qualifying offer, which I'm sure he'll turn down. And there's the usual minor league exodus of no-hopers and never-weres. Except for the above-mentioned Mendez and Sarretti. Mendez is as average a batter as you'll ever find, but he's an excellent fielder--infield and outfield--and maybe the fastest guy across the franchise. I sign him for the standard 750K minimum and he'll eat a spot on the 40-man roster, but I figure the insurance he offers is worth it. Sarretti gets the same offer, and is an interesting case: signed during the summer after his Italian league team finished its season, his ratings kept going up every time my scouts reported back to me. He fancies himself a starting pitcher, but doesn't have the stamina for it; however, his excellent control and groundball slant make him an attractive candiate for the bullpen next spring.

......

Around the league...
...four teams can their managers: NY Yankees, Portland, San Francisco, and San Diego. Three of them quickly sign new skippers, all of whom are MLB rookies. As of this writing, only the Giants remain unhelmed.
...the vaccine is working: no owners die or get replaced this off-season.
...for the second year running Baltimore trades its starting catcher. This time it's power-hitting Omar Ramirez (but just a career .230 hitter) going to Texas for excellent-on-paper-but-pretty-bad-in-real-life pitcher Jonathan Bell. Everyone deserves a second chance, I guess.
...KC, for some odd reason, trades 2B Thumbs Ebert--who hit .266 with 17 HR in a solid rookie campaign--to Portland for middling soft-tossing SP John Stuart.
...one more early, and head-shaking, trade: Minnesota sends OF Steve Wilkins to Richmond for OF Aaron Riches and prospect SS Victor Provencio. I don't get it. Wilkins is solid: no weaknesses at the plate, with career season averages of .279 and 32 HR. His only drawback is his sluggishness in the outfield, but he makes up for that with a great glove and arm. Riches, also a power-hitting OF, has too many holes to be a straight-up replacement for the departed Wilkins. His lifetime batting average is .201, and while he hits over 30 HR a year he also strikes out around 220 times. He's speedy, and a good-enough fielder, but that average leaves a big donut hole in the middle of the Twins lineup. Provencio looks promising, but is no sure thing.
...Austin made the playoffs this year for the first time in a couple decades, but they're already making decisions that could make it another 20 years before they go back. To wit, letting 27-year-old all-everything SS Victor Sanchez (.336/43/140) walk, while re-signing 37-year-old 3B Andrew Crisp (.252/27/64) to a 2-year deal, for $8M per. Guys: break the bank for your star, and fill in around him with non-geriatric players. If I can do it, so can you.

......

Ok, back to us.

Arbitration decisions come in, and as usual we'll owe more than I want to. The big winner is SP Mike Messinger (5.2M to 9.3M). Other results are: RP YT Yaung (2.6M to 3.75M), SP Pete Morrow (1.2M to 1.9M), RP Zack Randolph (1.5M to 1.7M), OF Joel Jacoby (1.3M to same), OF Steve Hopkins (1.1M to 1.5M), IF John Canning (750K to 950K), P Frank Soto (750K to 850K), and IF/OF Ashton Gooding (500K to 750K). Don't let it surprise you when I say that not all of these guys will be around in, oh, another week or so.

......

Back to the league. (Stick around tho: some big Hawaii news is coming!) Awards season rolls around, and the deal we made with the devil was to forgo any individual hardware for that lovely World Series trophy. Seems fair to me.
...No Islanders win an AL Gold Glove. Among the repeat winners were Oakland P Mike Wiater (his 3rd in a row) and KC CF Eli Immordino (his 6th, and first in center). In the NL, Cubs SS Alex Castillo wins his 2nd consecutive GG, after previously winning two at third. New Orleans CF Pat Barnes wins his third straight.
...We're shut out of the Silver Sluggers too, but Oakland's Vinny Vargas wins his fifth (at catcher), and KC 3B Juan Garcia takes advantage of Adam Groff's injury to break his four-year stranglehold on the award. In the NL, Montreal 3B Matt Anderson wins his 6th, and the aforementioned Austin SS Victor Sanchez his third.
...Milwaukee closer Bill Brunson wins his second Hoyt Wilhelm trophy (and promptly declares free agency: "I'm gonna get PAID! Probably by the Dodgers."), while New Orleans' star Justin Huggins wins his first. Maybe that will take some of the sting out of blowing game 7 in the World Series, Justin. I joke.
...AL Rookie of the Year goes to Oakland RF Jordan Coronado (.281/29/113, with 41 doubles), while the NL nod goes to Portland LF Morgan Akers (.317/41/141).
...Our own Pat Wilson wins his fourth manager of the year trophy (second in a row, too), and New Orleans skipper Jerry Elder earns his first.
...Miami's Levi Brady took 2/3 of the first place ballots in the AL Cy Young voting, to collect his first trophy. At 35, it's probably his last, too. (Rob Hart came in 6th place.) Dodger ace Jackson Suttie received 30 of 36 first place votes to easily win the NL version, also his first win. Suttie was the only 20-game winner in baseball this season. Of note: STL's Ken Clark came in 6th. I only bring him up because I'm still galled that I'm on the hook for $6M of his salary for the next five seasons. He last pitched for us in 2038. Sigh. Don't retain long-term salary in trades, kids.)
...League MVP voting comes as no surprise, really: Vinny Vargas (.386/43/113, 10.3 WAR) sweeps to the AL trophy, while Austin SS Victor Sanchez (him again) garners 29 votes and romps home easily. It's the first MVP trophy for each player.

But enough about everyone else, let's go back to us now.

......

I said there would be some player movement, and I will not disappoint you! Trader Jim is in the house, and he got busy with five--count 'em, FIVE--trades in a two week span. Not all were biggies, so we'll recount them in order of importance.

TRADE! We send OF Mel Carrillo, OF Travis McArthur, P Aldo Gouweleeuw, P Ronnie Corgan, and our 5th and 9th round picks to Austin for OF John Cannon and P Perry Walker. What We Gave Up: Carrillo (.358/17/67) had a career-o year-o at the plate, and yet still only made 100 starts. I'll miss his useful bat, and he was popular (and my first big international signing), but I won't miss his eight injuries per year (not a joke). He'll have to become a superstar in someone else's training room now; McArthur was our first ever draft pick, #1 overall back in 2034. While he was good--.285/28/94 career 162-game averages--he was never a star, and at 30, his overall value was beginning to slip. Still, he's got quite a bit left in the tank, and in some ways I'll miss him most of all; Gouweleeuw and Corgan never really found their footing on the pitching staff for us, but they'll get solid looks from soon-to-be pitching-starved Austin; the picks were must-have throw-ins. What We Get Back: Cannon is a guy Austin sort-of offered us back at the deadline in July. He is a big-time power bat, averaging 40 HR a year (although he slipped to 29 last year). He's a decent-ish fielder, has some speed (steals! Pagan is happy!) and should hit better than the .262 he hit last season. He's well worth giving up 2/3 of our 2043 starting outfield for; Walker is a 24-year-old lefty, solid across the board, and with an odd slider/knuckle curve combo. He has yet to pitch in the bigs, and looks like at least a solid MR/SU pitcher.

Not done yet...

TRADE! We send SS Mike Hunter, P Jim Kieffer, RP JS Yee, IF Jim Bowman, 1B Jake Kane, and three picks to Portland in exchange for SS Rich Stoneback, P Dan Brown, and a pick. What We Gave Up: The doubles machine that is Mike Hunter (avg 54 per 162 games), a career .316 hitter, and a solid fielder. But his salary was getting to be too much, escalating to 16M next season, and 20M after that. I'll miss his great hitting, but at 20M per season, you'd better lead the league in something, my man; Kieffer now gets a chance to work out his demons for Portland, who needs quality pitching. He had to solid seasons as a closer for us, and half a good season in the rotation. In between and around all that, he ranged from solid to gaseous, sometimes from appearance to appearance. I don't know what he'll bring to the Pioneers next year, but he looks great on paper and was a key guy they wanted; Yee, now 36, had three solid-to-okay seasons in the pen for us, and his ratings suggest he's got at least a couple more left in him; Bowman has been a solid utility guy for two seasons now, more than capably filling in at third, short, second, and the outfield. If he would tak a walk or two, he'd be even more useful, to be honest; Kane, 24, got 72 AB during the summer, hitting .292. He's got excellent contact and gap power, and won't strike out. Given a chance, he could easily hit .320 year-in, year-out. Not many HR, tho, and not much in the field. What We Get Back: Stoneback was the key for us, by far. Very similar to Hunter, only minus the doubles, but with power to hit 20 HR. His average may be lower than Hunter's (.290 to .310), but he'll walk more, and get more steals (Owner Goal met!). Quality fielder, and makes less money (12.8M) too, so I'm happy; Brown is 23, a hard-throwing righty coming off a tough season (7.00 ERA in 36 IP), but who looks like he'll rebound nicely. Control can get better, and if he develops his third pitch (a curveball, which he probably won't, tbh), he could figure in the rotation one day.

More...

TRADE! OF Steve Hopkins and P Frank Soto to Tampa Bay for a 9th round pick. Hopkins hit .322 and .305 over 303 AB the last two seasons, as an injury fill-in. A good fielder with a big arm, and won't kill you on the bases either. Good hitter, but little power and plate discipline, although he won't strike out any; Soto was up and down for us during his three years in the system, but due to injuries appeared in just 11 games over the last two seasons. To me, he looks more like a AAAA pitcher than a big leaguer, but he'll get a shot with the up-and-coming Rays. What We Get Back: A useful pick, in return for shedding over $2M in unwanted contracts and two spots on the 40-man roster. Small potatoes, to be sure, but potatoes are good. Mmm...potatoes.

Nearly there...

TRADE! P Eric Plummer is off to Washington for P Ryan Ratliff. What We Gave Up: Plummer will earn nearly 6M for each of the next two seasons, which is just too much for a tweener pitcher to make, in my opinion. He came over from Toronto in mid-season, and while he was not-so-hot (5.07, 72 IP, 36 K) for the Jays, he was worse (5.35, 72 IP, 35 K, 35 BB) for us. He's been a useful starter before, hitting double figures in wins for New Orleans three years in a row, and god knows the awful Nationals can use any live bodies on the mound. So maybe he can find himself again. What We Get Back: Ratliff, a 23-year-old righty who was pretty decent in AA last year, when healthy. Solid ratings, some room to grow, and three developed pitches. Enough stamina to start, as well. Nice intangibles. His drawback is an injury history: 9 starts last year, 24 the year before. Still, adding another arm to the mix can't hurt...can't hurt me, at least. His arm might fall off, but mine won't.

Last one, promise...

TRADE! OF Joel Jacoby is packed off to Toronto for P Malik Chaney. What We Gave Up: Jacoby is a solid fielder and a nifty baserunner. He also has a cool moustache, and walks a lot (or would, if he batted a lot). But he makes over $1M (1.3, to be precise), and was likely looking at starting the season in AAA. Too much dough for a minor leaguer, and I'm trying to pare where I can. He's at worst a useful backup and injury fill-in. What We Get Back: In Chaney, another arm to experiment with. Or more insurance, if you will. He's 28, a lefty, and hasn't produced much in 128 big league innings. But he's got good stuff, an elite changeup, and keeps the ball down. Once again, another arm that will probably start in AAA but be on the short list for promotion depending on need.

All combined, that's a lot of player movement, which is what I promised. From our playoff roster, we've moved our SS, 2/3 of our OF, a backup IF and an OF, and three pitchers. We also ship out three other pitchers and a promising 1B/DH prospect. In return, we get two potential all-star starters--at short and at an OF corner position--and four pitchers. Only one of those pitchers looks big league ready, but that's okay. Of the moved picks, we're down a 5th and 9th, but regained an 8th. That washes for me.

I'm likely done trading, unless training camp brings some major injuries. I'll also make a final sweep through our minor league system soon, culling out the chaff and moving guys up and down. It's possible once that's done I could swing some minor deals--AA guy for AA guy, that sort of thing--but it's more likely I'll go the minor league free agent route instead. There's also the just-released list of international free agents, and there are a couple of pitchers worth looking at there as well. So, while the big news has already been delivered, the 2044 roster is not fully set, not just yet.

......

...One week into the UFA season, and there's only been one signing of note: Boston re-signed SS Pablo Delgado (.222/20/77) for four years at $14.6M per. Ehhh...Pablo can still get on base (.352 OBP) and wields a fine glove, but that's a lot of cash for a .220 hitter who's a long way removed from his prime.
...Boston makes the second splash as well, landing C Lance Powell for 5 years and $131M combined. Powell (.323/35/102) is a consistent 6-to-7 WAR guy, and well worth it.
...St Loo inks 2B Tim Ost (.291/21/80) for nearly $15M per over four years. Ost is a career .290 hitter over his five big league seasons, but I think he's peaked, and will struggle to live up to that contract for the Birds.
...If it's free agent season, it must be time for: LOS ANGELES DODGERS CRAZY-ASS PAYROLL WATCH! Yes, once again, in their mad quest to sign every closer that's ever been, the Dodgers have reached deep into their wallets and come up with fat wads of cash for another star reliever. This time, it's former Brewer Bill Brunson (WHAT DID I TELL YOU, PEOPLE), who'll make $11M this coming season in LA. That makes him the 12th highest paid player on the Dodgers, and 6th highest pitcher. The Dodgers have committed $234.9M as of right now in 2044 salaries. Fun fact: that number will surely go up, by quite a bit, over the next two months. Count on it. And while I know it's still early in free agency, you should know that the team with the #2 payroll is the New York Mets, coming in at a paltry $153M. That's $81M lower than the Dodgers. Currently there are eleven teams under $81M in payroll, just for some perspective.
...Tampa Bay shows it could be for real next year by inking former Cincy ace Robbie Collier to a four-year, $61M deal. Collier was just 8-6 with a 3.77 ERA in 32 starts last year, but did fan 197 in 157 IP. He has no stamina (averaging just over 5 IP a start in his six-year career) but is fun to watch while he's out there.

...

Part 2 forthcoming.