[NoOne]

if it's a 'deal' for that quality of player, you should jump on it. assuming no financial problems. the more difficult it is to fill that role, the more interested you should be in keeping them on the cheap.


--- more general / theoretical

not sure on financial environment. 30-35 is a max contract in my leagues and the players most likely to be an all-star are all 18-35M-ish. things should be relative, that should help translate things.

relative to makret size -- upto you to learn how much you can afford at any one time. understand bare-bones cost of bench and other filler you are willing to live with and make sure to leave at least that much when stretching budget for "1 more" bigger contract. if it doesn't fit, don't try to bend reality and just let them go.

--age is a big factor for me, in addition to things mentioned in above posts. i don't want them signed throug too old of an age even if i intend to trade before those last 1-3 years. if greater return than compensation pick, it is much easier to trade them. if comp pick is greater value, then i'm more concerned about length of contract matching time of need.

--type of hitter is key - slugger or obp role on my team. i won't pay 'max' for an obp guy unless he's god. i keep 2 solid obp guys, in case of injury and as many sluggers as i can afford. availability and budget influence what that looks like over time.

--stock on farm. even if it's a deal, if i have a near equivalent or better coming i will go the cheaper route. if a little worse, that extra money re-invested elswhere more efficiently will return more wins overall.

--ease of replacing. a 1B demanding more than i want to pay is more likely to be traded than a SS demanding a bit extra. i'll probably see something comparable and cheaper/ more flexible contract length stopgap in FA at 1B.

i typically only extend players that offer some sort of deal on price -- and not just due to buying arb years. the closer you get to their last arbitration year, the more likely and more closely their demand will resemble a FA's demand. ie higher in price. if you can recognize when the price is high relative to quality of player, it's almost always better to let them hit FA and hope the market brings his demand down to a reasonable level.

personality and ?other? factors are definitely creating a spectrum of results on this. take what's offered and don't overspend. the 1-2 extra losses you have in short-term of any difficult loss wil be more than recovered as you more wisely spend that money. if that opportunity doesn't come this year, be patient.

that's easy for me to do, because outside of a few rare exceptions, any player that is expected to start on my team isn't older than ~32 and is fairly well spread out so that i can somewhat control the loss of talent over time. the more you deviate from that the more likely you get forced into decisions regarding players/payroll. forced decisions leave it all to luck, and that's not good.