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carry-over cash affects extensions, and not FA money. this is also where there's some deviation... other than that you can see other deviaitons due to 'next' years salary comittments.
you can roughly estimate what you need for IAFA and draft needs -- as in always err on the side of having more than enough...
if you project well, you can spend this extra budget space in more productive ways -- specifically your scouting and development budgets. dump as much into these as you can.
i don't do trade deadline deals, but you can project for this too... make sure never to hamstring yourself, and dump as much as you can into scouting and development when your payroll is low. player spending correlates to winning more than scouting/dev of course. as you win, don't sacrifice good players for scouting/dev beyond ~baseline-ish levels.
i shoot for a 10M profit, because that's the default carry-over cash limit... i use that for a little wiggle room when salary starts to ramp up as a team ages. i try to save it for the context of staving off a salary dump for ~1 more year etc while you have a WS-caliber team.
i'm religious about getting rid of players from 29-32+. it keeps a steady pipeline of prospects coming into system even with low draft picks, plus keeps team payroll lower due to large portion of arbitration eligible players providing significant contributions. it's the only way for easy, predictible and perpetual success. all financial problems are avoidable if oyu look ahead 2-3-5years as needed.
you can't control much revenue, so put effort into what little you have control over... Gate revenue is where you can add ~10, 20 or even 30M more revenue if you put in the work and learning to maximize it. there will be a 1-year lag between being able to spend it in your budget, but it's worth it once you get it going.
don't let the 'predicted' gate revenue bother you... sometimes it underpredicts if you are constantly pushing boundaries of what you can charge... e.g. it is typically severely under-reported the way i do things because my season tickets are a premium price and it somehow causes a poor prediction for gate revenue until ~mid season or later. i think it's due to how i maximize revenue with season tickets. it's using an average of that price and gate price to predict attendance, but that's not accurate to how attendance actually fills out.
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