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Sure, WAR is a good measurement of player's relative values. But it's more complicated than that.
One thing it depends on is how much money you have. If you are a rich team with a lot of budget room, then the money has less value to you. You should be willing to pay a lot more for perhaps even a somewhat marginally better superstar. But if you are on a tight budget, you may find a better use of your budget is spreading it across a few above average players that give the best WAR per dollar.
Another consideration should be what your alternative choice would be. If the player's position has a lot of other talented players that are only slightly weaker than your superstar, but those other players can be acquired for just a fraction of the price and allow you to make more improvements elsewhere with the savings, it would make sense to let the player go. But if this superstar is a freak with a really large gap in ability between him and the next best player you could acquire, it may be worth it.
This is complicated by the fact that you may not really know what alternative player you could acquire. You could look at upcoming free agents and maybe check if the team has enough money to resign the player, or if they have another comparable player in the same position so that they wouldn't want to pay for 2 at the same position. Or maybe you have someone already in your team. Or you can attempt to trade for someone to see what you'd have to give up, which may be worth more to you than the cash of the player's salary.
Also, 40M is really high. Even 23M is quite huge. So you could consider letting the player go to free agency, and then being able to resign them for much lower than their initial demand. Just give the player a 15M qualifying offer so that you get a comp draft pick if he is picked up by another team. After that, just watch him and watch who is interested. In OOTPB 18 at least, you can see who is interested in the player on the MLB offseason page where it shows the top free agents ordered by their contract demands. Or you can click the button to go to the offer contract page, and the player will mention if anyone is interested. As long as he hasn't gotten any offers, you can wait and let his demands fall.
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