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NoOne · 03-31-2018, 07:55 PM

Development -- if they don't have the potential they can NEVER develope without extreme luck from TCR increasing their potential in arandom and unpredictable way.

promote based on developement.. if ratings are similar to the next level up, promote them etc etc.. who cares if they hit .200 if their ratings are sky-rocketting. (age can be a factor. e.g. few 18year olds will develop and have success at AAA/AA.. even A-ball sometimes. but if they do, don't hold them back. let them fail first before you maek that decision based on age.)

if you have a good scout and pay more than baseline, odds are he is more often right than the OSA.. so, don't bet against the odds. that's like taking a hit on 17 in blackjack... you just don't do it, ever. simply about probability.

overall/pot is fine to look at, but don't get enamored by it in the daft -- even more so with SP. the top 5-10 picks should be the 76-80 / 80 guys, after that it's tougher to see and the remaining 76-80 guys after those 10 picks or so are likely hit-or-miss scouting inaccuraccy, since so many teams passsed them up.

(they pick the wrong ones too in those first 5-10, of course, but hte longer you go in draft the more liekly those "highly" rated guys are imposters)

SP -- age matters -- a young age will display a less-then-likely stuff rating, which will bring down their potential. there's a chance their velocity incrases by ~21-22 etc.. high risk, high reward type thing.

SP - make sure movement or control is not 1/100 or 10/100 etc.. extremely low in either, not matter how well rated, will never be an MLB player.

SP- make sure they have at least 3 pitches -- same as for movement/control -- if 1 of those pitches are 1or10+/100 (extremely low), then you have an RP listed as an SP.

don't get hung up on the positions given in the draft.. they will often change just as in RL... almost all pitchers drafted were SP in high school etc in real life and is so in the game too. even college sp are often future RP.

in fact, after many of the top SP prospects are gone, start lookig for position players with the above requirements of an SP... they will often be excellent choices to be converted to an SP. (i woudn't convert an 80+contact ~80power guy, of course.. or even an 80contact high obp leadoff stud, for that matter... but a middling offensive prospect, sure an SP is worth more than them playing the field)

personality -- after the other requirements are met, this is a good tie-breaker. work ethic and intelligence are you keys for development. make bad personalities a secondary thing, unless you have a ton of malcontents on your MLB team all the time. a few is no problem if they are all-stars or future HoF players.

coaches have an effect, but they will never turn an average player into an all-star. that will simply be luck of a one-year wonder small sample size, and not the coach when it does randomly occur. pay good ones if you can afford them of course... unfortunately all we see is reputation and that is a weak correlation to a good coach, at best... no way for us to know anymore unless you turn commisioner mode on and look at their ratings.

i have another post that goes in depth about filters and learning aspects of the draft... using a throway league to to determine when you see a ton of the 1/100 movement or control guys become the norm as opposed ot the rarity.. essentailly you won't find any viable pitcher once these types dominate the choices available and it will occur at roughly the same time in teh draft relative to depth of that draft each year. it'll be the same range of rounds each year etc.

this one has a general overview: ** i was wrong about work ethic in this link below, but still stand by that inetelligence had a stronger correlation that year than work ethic to development.. i still think work ethic i smore about aging as far as a large affect:
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=282564

ugh i cannot find the one i wanted to link..

basically how i learn: i'll leave accuarcy as normal and use a similar scout/budget.. with comissioner mode on i'll go through and shortlist the viable prospects (batters are easier, i do this mostly for pitching). you can jsut do the "Elite" as a proof of concept too... so you highlight them so they stand out like a sore thumb.

then, apply various filters or sorting methods.. which method produces the highest % of capitalized names at the top? those are the methods i stick to.

i don't do this for the first ~10 picks, though. i will take the elitely rated, because that's still your best %-bet. if you hit on 50% of your first round picks be happy... specifically roudn1, pick 1-10 i want a higher %-success than 50%, of course.

03-31-2018, 07:55 PM	#11
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	Development -- if they don't have the potential they can NEVER develope without extreme luck from TCR increasing their potential in arandom and unpredictable way. promote based on developement.. if ratings are similar to the next level up, promote them etc etc.. who cares if they hit .200 if their ratings are sky-rocketting. (age can be a factor. e.g. few 18year olds will develop and have success at AAA/AA.. even A-ball sometimes. but if they do, don't hold them back. let them fail first before you maek that decision based on age.) if you have a good scout and pay more than baseline, odds are he is more often right than the OSA.. so, don't bet against the odds. that's like taking a hit on 17 in blackjack... you just don't do it, ever. simply about probability. overall/pot is fine to look at, but don't get enamored by it in the daft -- even more so with SP. the top 5-10 picks should be the 76-80 / 80 guys, after that it's tougher to see and the remaining 76-80 guys after those 10 picks or so are likely hit-or-miss scouting inaccuraccy, since so many teams passsed them up. (they pick the wrong ones too in those first 5-10, of course, but hte longer you go in draft the more liekly those "highly" rated guys are imposters) SP -- age matters -- a young age will display a less-then-likely stuff rating, which will bring down their potential. there's a chance their velocity incrases by ~21-22 etc.. high risk, high reward type thing. SP - make sure movement or control is not 1/100 or 10/100 etc.. extremely low in either, not matter how well rated, will never be an MLB player. SP- make sure they have at least 3 pitches -- same as for movement/control -- if 1 of those pitches are 1or10+/100 (extremely low), then you have an RP listed as an SP. don't get hung up on the positions given in the draft.. they will often change just as in RL... almost all pitchers drafted were SP in high school etc in real life and is so in the game too. even college sp are often future RP. in fact, after many of the top SP prospects are gone, start lookig for position players with the above requirements of an SP... they will often be excellent choices to be converted to an SP. (i woudn't convert an 80+contact ~80power guy, of course.. or even an 80contact high obp leadoff stud, for that matter... but a middling offensive prospect, sure an SP is worth more than them playing the field) personality -- after the other requirements are met, this is a good tie-breaker. work ethic and intelligence are you keys for development. make bad personalities a secondary thing, unless you have a ton of malcontents on your MLB team all the time. a few is no problem if they are all-stars or future HoF players. coaches have an effect, but they will never turn an average player into an all-star. that will simply be luck of a one-year wonder small sample size, and not the coach when it does randomly occur. pay good ones if you can afford them of course... unfortunately all we see is reputation and that is a weak correlation to a good coach, at best... no way for us to know anymore unless you turn commisioner mode on and look at their ratings. i have another post that goes in depth about filters and learning aspects of the draft... using a throway league to to determine when you see a ton of the 1/100 movement or control guys become the norm as opposed ot the rarity.. essentailly you won't find any viable pitcher once these types dominate the choices available and it will occur at roughly the same time in teh draft relative to depth of that draft each year. it'll be the same range of rounds each year etc. this one has a general overview: ** i was wrong about work ethic in this link below, but still stand by that inetelligence had a stronger correlation that year than work ethic to development.. i still think work ethic i smore about aging as far as a large affect: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=282564 ugh i cannot find the one i wanted to link.. basically how i learn: i'll leave accuarcy as normal and use a similar scout/budget.. with comissioner mode on i'll go through and shortlist the viable prospects (batters are easier, i do this mostly for pitching). you can jsut do the "Elite" as a proof of concept too... so you highlight them so they stand out like a sore thumb. then, apply various filters or sorting methods.. which method produces the highest % of capitalized names at the top? those are the methods i stick to. i don't do this for the first ~10 picks, though. i will take the elitely rated, because that's still your best %-bet. if you hit on 50% of your first round picks be happy... specifically roudn1, pick 1-10 i want a higher %-success than 50%, of course. Last edited by NoOne; 03-31-2018 at 07:59 PM.