[NoOne]

how do you feel about a 27-28 y.o. with a signifcant portion of potential missing form his movement?

a 5'6" 120lbs guy hits 40hr in year one... do you think he'll continue that? with only 10% based on ratings, maybe that would be the deduction... and it would be a terrible one. some exceptions most likely exist and are virtually required for good decisions. the ai eval is a broad overarching concept that does have a major impact, nonetheless.

if his lack of reaching potential has remained consistent the last couple years (as opposed to a dip), that may not be the problem, but should be a bad omen nonetheless. if it dipped, that's a major problem... it shows a downtrend at ~27, which is going to diminish value.

even in RL when a pitcher overperforms, they don't automatically assume he's the greatest thing since sliced bread. this guy most certainly cannot maintain ~hoF quality pitching of his first 2 years (era+ ~125 is a good bet for HoF if it's scaling to the league stats properly.)

even with 10% ratings, a guy who has a career years) his first couple in the league shouldn't be an equivalent trade asset as an established player with those numbers.

can verify the ops+ potential issue by comparing to league averages the last coule years for pitching.. is he really ~20-40% better in those years? for modern stats sure looks like it, but if league era is signifcantly different than ~4.10, not so much in that environment. i'm not 100% it scales as it should to environement in ootp.

he doesn't look that sexy to me, but i am not familiar with the ratings ootp gives players of that time period. that guy may very well be a gem, and if that's the case you have a good argument.

otherwise, he looks 'replaceable' to me... not a replacement player, just numerous options available of ~similar ability. not something to give up assets in a trade when you can easily find similar quality elsewhere. so, i wouldn't value that very highly, and neither should the AI. also, he never met his potential which does not bode well.

odds, not gaurantees... if they aren't reaching potentialing 24/25 you should start looking for trade partners earlier in career and that will help. exceptions do exists, so if you can stash 1 or 2 in your 6th/7th slots in pen, no big deal... ie SP with a thirde pitch that is 1/XX scale may skyrocket, eventually (lower % as they age). Same with that movement of lollar. (historical play a bit different, but still some randomness even with strictest settings about player ratings). at 27-28 it's not going to happen and the AI knows this too in some shape or form.

one thing about 60-20-10. the 60% will be re-distributed early on in a new season. sample size is considered. in this case, if it was the offseason, it's not pertinent to Lollar. but, if it was eary on in the "3rd" season of the window, it's not weighted so heavily. if it re-distrubutes evenly, it will have a major impact on behaviour being different at various times of the calendar, due to this fact... ie early on it may be 0-40-30, that's nothing like 60-20-10. then, by end of season it's back to 60-20-10. (gist) -- what is actually done is not cetain, but what is certain is that the DO re-distribute the current year % due to sample size...