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ihatenames · 02-12-2018, 06:19 PM

This is pretty safe as far as long term deals go. Comes out to be about an average of 21 per year. That is acceptable risk in my opinion. If he can stay healthy he’ll easily outplay that contract. Don’t get me wrongf there is risk, but I’m pretty comfortable with that contract.

Let’s put it another way using Fangraphs War to dollars conversion. During an injury shortened 2014 (only 22 starts) he was worth $28.1M. Similarly his injury shortened 2016 (17 starts) was worth $21.9M. In other words, if he can manage at least half a season every year at a similar perfomance level the contract will be worth it. I do expect his performance to obviously drop with age but I suspect he’ll pitch more than enough to make up for it.

02-12-2018, 06:19 PM	#11
ihatenames Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Rockford Posts: 2,534	This is pretty safe as far as long term deals go. Comes out to be about an average of 21 per year. That is acceptable risk in my opinion. If he can stay healthy he’ll easily outplay that contract. Don’t get me wrongf there is risk, but I’m pretty comfortable with that contract. Let’s put it another way using Fangraphs War to dollars conversion. During an injury shortened 2014 (only 22 starts) he was worth $28.1M. Similarly his injury shortened 2016 (17 starts) was worth $21.9M. In other words, if he can manage at least half a season every year at a similar perfomance level the contract will be worth it. I do expect his performance to obviously drop with age but I suspect he’ll pitch more than enough to make up for it. __________________ New Album coming soon!