OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post

NoOne · 12-12-2017, 01:31 PM

it may or may not be luck.. defintieyl couldn't tell from just watching.

not quite about regression... we are looking at long-term total pie results to determine if this effect is real or not. regression to the mean on this topis would be looking recent history or some small window of time and saying we are in a "up" period and it will likely regress back to historical norms if given enough time.

this effect could easily be simulated, if real, so that's not an obstacle. The only 'catch' to it is whether or not the game designers agreed that it was 'real' and wanted to implement it in their video game. if you can google it and find specific agreed upon assumptions proven by real life data, there's a pretty good chance it's in the game.

--------------

if i were forced to bet, it would be that both rookie batters and pitchers have some sort of net negative effect implemented relative to who they are facing at the moment. i doubt either has a net positive due to lack of experience, all other things remaining the same.

i'm ~100% certain age or service time (combo?) is a real effect in minor leauges, so it's not a stretch that it also influence initial mlb years. i.e. few 18 years olds can perform well even if current ratings warrant a higher placement in A, aa or aaa. some can do it, but if they wallow @ 50-80ops+ or 50-80era+ for an entire year you know they shouldn't have been in that league no matter what their ratings say (accuracy assumed for this example).. the ones that can do it will be competent and ~average or better stats relative to that league. keep promoting those even if young. but they are an exception and that doesn't disprove the effect of age in MiL.

don't speculate here on it, go google and see if any research backs up the postulation you are asking about. it won't be definitive as to whether it is in the game or not, but it will give a very good idea... a "no" will be more obvious and more easily shown to be true. a 'no' will be definitive. a 'yes' = maybe.

12-12-2017, 01:31 PM	#4
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	it may or may not be luck.. defintieyl couldn't tell from just watching. not quite about regression... we are looking at long-term total pie results to determine if this effect is real or not. regression to the mean on this topis would be looking recent history or some small window of time and saying we are in a "up" period and it will likely regress back to historical norms if given enough time. this effect could easily be simulated, if real, so that's not an obstacle. The only 'catch' to it is whether or not the game designers agreed that it was 'real' and wanted to implement it in their video game. if you can google it and find specific agreed upon assumptions proven by real life data, there's a pretty good chance it's in the game. -------------- if i were forced to bet, it would be that both rookie batters and pitchers have some sort of net negative effect implemented relative to who they are facing at the moment. i doubt either has a net positive due to lack of experience, all other things remaining the same. i'm ~100% certain age or service time (combo?) is a real effect in minor leauges, so it's not a stretch that it also influence initial mlb years. i.e. few 18 years olds can perform well even if current ratings warrant a higher placement in A, aa or aaa. some can do it, but if they wallow @ 50-80ops+ or 50-80era+ for an entire year you know they shouldn't have been in that league no matter what their ratings say (accuracy assumed for this example).. the ones that can do it will be competent and ~average or better stats relative to that league. keep promoting those even if young. but they are an exception and that doesn't disprove the effect of age in MiL. don't speculate here on it, go google and see if any research backs up the postulation you are asking about. it won't be definitive as to whether it is in the game or not, but it will give a very good idea... a "no" will be more obvious and more easily shown to be true. a 'no' will be definitive. a 'yes' = maybe. Last edited by NoOne; 12-12-2017 at 01:37 PM.