Quote:
Originally Posted by Cobby
Fulmer had the highest ERA of those starters but the lowest FIP. That's odd don't you think?. It means he was extremely unlucky or the fielders behind him were basically tree stumps. With a little luck, and/or decent fielders, his inflated ERA, WHIP and OAVG would be back down to levels we'd feel more comfortable with. If his ERA matched his 2.91 FIP, we wouldn't have much trouble giving him the Cy Young.
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The problem with FIP is that it doesn't take into account how hard balls are hit when they are hit. My guess is that Fulmer got hit hard when he did get hit, whereas some other Cy Young Award candidate(s) had plenty of groundballs that squeaked through the infield, and thus did not end in two- or three-base advances by any player on base, thus keeping the ERA in check. Fulmer also pitches in Detroit half the time, which is among the hardest parks to hit a homerun in, and HR allowed weighs heavily against FIP. FIP also relies heavily on strikeouts. I realize that in most cases, a strikeout pitcher is most likely going to allow less base hits, because less balls are put in play, but that isn't always the case. Jeff Samardzija and former players like Kerry Wood (late in his career) struck out plenty, but to some extent, they are/were "effectively wild", and they threw/throw hard. Usually, when they got/get hit, it was hard, because the location was/is off, and the pitch was/is right down the middle. FIP would have you believe that Jeff Samardzija is having a season comparable to an average year from Greg Maddux, and that couldn't be further from the truth.