[Bub13]

The hot flush of our first World Series appearance has quickly given way to the hangover of losing the last two games at home and coming up empty handed. Despite the bitter end to the season, there are a lot of positives to look back upon: the front office rates fan interest at '98' and we drew 47.6K per game; counting the playoffs we were over $30M in the black, which allows me to ramp up our scouting and development budgets. Owner Alexis Pagan is Very Happy (more from him later). The top end of our prospect pool has a number of players ready to make the jump. Time to shake off my personal gloom and get back into the game...

First, the 2038 trophies were handed out. We didn't net many, but what we got was pretty good...Despite being third in defensive efficiency, we netted zero Golden Gloves...Tops in team batting, but zero Silver Sluggers...Pitcher Eric Jones (19-5, 2.80, 202 IP) came in third in Rookie of the Year voting...Pat Wilson won Manager of the Year...Jeremy Dunklee finished third in AL MVP voting (Toronto's Preston Sorensen won his third)...And Leon Casillas (18-10, 2.49, 6.9 WAR, league best WHIP and BB/9) won his second Cy Young, first in the AL.

We spent 99M on salaries last year, and Pagan has raised my budget to 140M (up from 130) and tells me I can spend 130M on player salaries. Well, not exactly, if I want to have a coaching staff, scouts, a draft budget, and... So let's just say I'll set an internal budget of 110-115M for salaries and see what I can get. (NOTE: After arbitration awards I'm sitting at 111M.) Pagan also reviews my goals, and gives me a "perfect score!" for 2038, and expects more of the same for 2039. Plus, he wants an upgrade at second base, where rookie Josh Robertson had a pretty good season.

In fact, the 2B question will lead off my fall and winter to-do list:

...The 2B Question, or, What To Do With the Middle Infield? 2B Josh Robertson had a good rookie season (.292/.344/.363, albeit with no power) and is a good fielder (+5 ZR). SS Jim Mullen had another banner year at the plate (.289/.323/.475, 19 HR, 96 RBI), although his batting declined through the summer, and he's better suited at second than at short (+.5 ZR). Mullen's slash line is also his worst over his last four seasons. They're both being pushed by Mike Hunter, who hit .286 as a late call-up in August/September. Hunter is the best fielder of the lot, with a cannon arm. All three players have good contact/gap/avoid K ratings, all have low plate discipline, and Hunter/Robertson have little power. Mullen will be 31 early in the 2039 season, and is a fan favorite... SO: Do I trade Robertson, slide Mullen over to second and make Hunter the opening day SS? Or do I "trade high" on Mullen and replace him with Hunter?

...Follow the Rotating Pitchers, or, How Set is the Staff Anyway? Casillas won the Cy Young, Eric Jones was a rookie phenom, and Rob Hart and Bobby Little were more than solid. Steve Brock was okay, but his 3.86 ERA was by far the worst in the rotation (league average was 4.44). While I love Brock's control (17 of 20), he's a pure junkballer on a staff that is not overwhelming to begin with. There are several rookies who had great seasons in AAA knocking on the door. And Brock just got an arbitration bump to 5M for next year; not too expensive, but more than a 23-year-old rookie would make, and more than I'd prefer to pay my fifth starter... SO: Is Brock trade bait? Do I open competition for the #5 slot in camp, while keeping my eyes peeled for a cheap free agent?

...The Perpetual Motion Machine, or, Where Have All the Relievers Gone? Half of my league-best bullpen is departing via free agency: injured closer Jack Shewmake wants 17M (I qualified him but he turned me down), setup man Steve Miller wants 11M, and bust-as-starter-but-good-from-the-pen Justin Ragland wants 8M. No, no, and nope. That's 185 IP and 37 saves gone right there. Ryan Key, Aaron Glass, and Matt Elie were solid and are returning, but they were less-than-stellar in the playoffs, especially Key. Ken Clark is back too, but was finally demoted from the rotation, and was little better in relief (11 HR in 31 IP). As noted above re the rotation, there are some guys pushing up from AAA, and it's likely one or two current AAA starters will end up in our pen come April. But we have no true closer... SO: Do we go and get a closer? Or bring in numerous arms and use March to sort them out?

...The Rest of the Story, or, Rounding Out the Roster. DH/1B Cisco Videira retired. Reserve C Oscar Villanueva was sub-Mendoza until late August, and reserve OF Kelvin Moreno went FA. Guillermo Diaz hit 24 HR in AAA and is solid behind the plate, so Villanueva is likely out. Ernesto Martinez went .291/.335/.576 with 26 HR as an OF/DH, and will get a chance to start every day in 2039. From the farm, 1B/DH Nate Hullinger failed in 2037 to stick in Hawaii, but he'll get another shot after 34 HR in AAA; super-prospect Mel Carillo has stalled somewhat (.242 with 3 HR in AAA), but my scouts say he's ready anyway; and out-of-nowhere OF Jesse Henkel hit 33 HR in AA/AAA and is ready for a long look in camp... SO: Probably not much movement here, but someone may figure into a multi-player trade. But...who?

......

Otherwise, it's the usual passel of off-season antics: fill the minors with intriguing (or at least mildly useful) free agents, set ticket prices, try to offset the loss of popular players with some sort of magical-thinking tomfoolery, and fill two slots on the pro team personnel roster (Asst GM Jonathan Myers wanted a raise from 96K to 456K, and bench coach Brandon Castro was surprisingly unpopular with a large swath of the players).

OTHER NOTES...
...Waiver Madness! Five teams claimed at least 20 players, with San Francisco leading the way at FORTY. I guess that's one way to try improving on your 66-win season, guys.
...Mets pitcher Gabe Delfin was superb, winning the NL Cy Young Award after a season of 18-8, 1.72, 270 K, 220 IP. His teammate Nate Johnson had a great year at the plate (.281/63/138) but finished second in MVP voting to Arizona's Lance Powell (.347/50/120).
...Hall of Fame voting begins, and there's no one I like. Two closers, Aroldis Chapman (20 WAR, 386 saves, 51% votes last year) and Nabil Crismatt (13 WAR, 473 saves, 74% votes last year) have a chance. First-time eligibles Xander Bogaerts (67 WAR, 2678 hits, 370 HR) and Dillon Thomas (72 WAR, 366 HR) may get a lot of votes, but not mine. Manny Machado's long career garnered nearly 2800 hits, 550 doubles, 53 WAR, and 2 World Series trophies, but only 14% of the vote last year.


Next up: Offseason Update and Training Camp