[Bub13]

Spring Training came and went without too too much trouble. We won 17 games (Oakland won 24, btw); five starting pitchers looked good, for once; CF Drayton, SS Mullen, and CL Shewmake spent time on the DL with minor injuries, but all are healthy for opening day. The one spot of annoyance involved #3 SP Bobby Little, who developed biceps tendinitis and went from "out for 3-4 weeks" to "out for an unknown length of time." He was our best pitcher for the first half of 2037 until going down for the year in July, and now he's out for more extended time. Great.

With Little out, that opened up a spot in the rotation, obviously. Who would step up to fill it? The top two spots were already gone, to Ken Clark and newbie Leon Casillas. Holdover Steve Brock will move up to #3, but I worry that he's over-slotted there, as he's a junkballer who's been only moderately dependable as a back end guy. The final two spots would come down to a competition between, in descending order of talent and my hope-for-their-success: Rob Hart, Mark Phillips, Eric Jones, Bobby Piccirillo, and Cory Taylor (although I have more wish to use Taylor as a mid-to-long reliever). Sadly, Hart and Phillips blew chunks all over their spring starts, as did Taylor in his several relief appearances. Happily, Jones and Piccirillo pitched quite well, and so earned spots on the opening day roster. Side note: My pitching staff in AAA is now, to me, MLB-quality, so there is some help if the new guys drop dead.

There were no surprises elsewhere on the roster. In March, I penciled in Josh Robertson as our starting 2B, and he did not disappoint over the month. OF prospect Mel Carillo looked good in spurts, and bad in others. His ratings got a jump in the April scouting report, so I could see him getting some time on the Island this summer. (Complete roster review below.)

Organizational Prospect Ranking
MLB surprised the hell out of me by ranking us #2 in overall prospect depth. SP Rob Hart, in fact, is currently the #1 rated prospect in all of baseball. He's 21, his ratings are MLB-ready (control could be better tho), and in fact would probably be our #3 starter if he had shown anything in camp. SP Mark Phillips is next, at #18. He's 25, and looks a lot like Hart, with less movement but better stuff. It's worrisome that he's a flyball pitcher with less-than-excellent movement; but he'll get his shot soon enough. Third is SP Eric Jones, also 21, at #28. Jones made the team as our #4 starter. He doesn't throw as hard as the guys above him, but has better movement and will develop better control. He's a groundballer and the only lefty starter in the rotation. Fourth is OF Mel Carillo, coming in at #74, and our highest ranked position player. He already has good contact and great gap power (he hits doubles like there's no tomorrow), and has a lot of room to grow into what should become a solid, all-star level player. He's just 20 and still looking like our LF of the future. Finally, there's SP Cameron Bornhoft, at #84. Bornhoft has flown under the radar since being drafted in 2034, but already is nearly MLB ready. He'll start in AA only because my AAA pitching is so strong. I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a September call-up, especially if we're cursed with injuries.

Preseason Predictions
MLB has shown us a lot of love in their last two season predictions, but they've gone sour on us this year. They have us winning just 81 games--.500 ball--and finishing in third place. Our hitting will be top-drawer (with good seasons from Groff and Dunklee), but pitching will be bottom of the league. Also troubling is that my owner has given me a goal of "just make the playoffs." (I've never won a title without my owner giving me a start-of-season "I think you can win it all!" goal/backslap.) Mark my words, however: we will be better than .500, and will make the playoffs...barring catastrophic injuries.

Oakland, Milwaukee, and Toronto will win their divisions, with Miami and Seattle getting wild card spots. In the NL, Pittsburgh and Arizona will win the Central and West, with the Mets and Richmond tying in the East, and Chicago getting the other wild card. The Pirates will be the only 100-win club, with 102. Also of note is the predicted 56 home runs from Mets 1B Nick Johnson (his second straight 50-HR season, btw).

Let's take a quick look at rest of the AL West, the guys we want to crush the most...
Oakland, predicted finish 1st place, 92-70 (2037 finish: 2nd, 91-71) Once again our toughest competition, and led by 24-year-old superstar C Vinny Vargas (ranked #1 in MLB). Their outfield of Nick Robinson, Tim Manske, and Dan Condon is one of the best in baseball, and 1B Pat Slind hit .313 with 31 HR last year. Starting pitchers Matt Bienvenu and Ricky Hose woud be top-of-rotation guys on any team in baseball. Weaknesses include the left side of the infield and a bullpen that looks like it will walk a ton of batters. Last year's closer Rick Cuneo is on the DL for two months, and has been replaced by former Yankee Pat Archer (37 saves but a 5.21 ERA last year).

Seattle, predicted finish 2nd place, 89-73 (2037 finish: 4th, 78-84) The Mariners have paired strong pitching with dreadful hitting for years now, and 2038 looks like more of the same. Aaron Myers has the chops to win Cy Youngs, and Sean Easter and Bryon Brendler are very nice complementary pieces in the rotation. Closer Tim Friddle is also top-notch, and the rest of the pen looks very capable. At the plate, CF Mike Wapner is a superstar in the making, but there's not much else. Their starters at 2B, LF, and RF look overmatched right now, and only one of the other returning starters hit over .250 last year. 89 wins looks like a stretch at the moment.

Hawaii, predicted finish 3rd place, 81-81 (2037 finish: 1st, 96-66) Us! More below...

Texas, predicted finish 4th place, 79-83 (2037 finish: 5th, 75-87) The Rangers lineup features two big-time power hitters, RF Sean Holliday (3 30-HR seasons) and 1B Ben Worley (536 HR in nine seasons in Japan)...but both are on the DL, and Holliday will miss the entire season. The rest of the lineup looks bleak. Their best pitcher is Mike Rath, who looked like a superstar-to-be in the minors, but had only one 3-WAR season in his 6.5 years in the majors. Remember Jamie Bell? A Rule 5 guy we took a chance on two years ago? He of the 10.59 ERA and 9 HR against in five starts with us? He's their #2 starter. Closer Josh Compagno looks like money, though, and the rest of the pen looks pretty solid. They're going to have to be.

Houston, predicted finish 5th place, 73-89 (2037 finish: 3rd, 82-80) The state of Texas has zero Championships, and the lowly Astros have only made the playoffs once since 2005, and that was twenty years ago. Pitching is a strength, featuring #1 starter Jay Russo and 47-save closer Manny Vargas. But there's a lot of mediocrity behind Russo, especially with #2 starter Adam Spinrad out until August. SS Jefferson McKenzie hits for power and average, and 2B Sean Boothe for average. After that...well, the corner IF has some power but nothing else, and the outfield looks like AAAA quality.

LA Angels, predicted finish 6th place, 69-93 (2037 finish: 6th, 72-90) The Angels were repeat 90-game winners just five years ago, but have plummeted since and are in the midst of a rebuild. C Jared Grose, a 3-time MVP, is the cream of the lineup, but he's 35 and starting to fade. SS Danny Gipson and RF Tom Richardson are the only other starters who should be called that. Pitching looks a little better, as they went and signed free agents Jeff Caraway and Bryan Gruber to anchor the rotation. But with two regular relievers already on the DL, the bullpen looks to be held together with tape and gum. There is hope on the horizon, with ARod clone Tony Mendoza about a year away.

......

And now, US.
We have a potent lineup, deeper starting pitching, solid defense, and a bullpen certainly no worse than anyone in our division, and we'll get 81 wins? I will tempt fate and say NO EFFING WAY. There. Now I've done it. Anyway, see for yourself.

(Key: POS, PLayer, age, 2037 stats, throws/bats, other stuff. Starters in bold)
C Austin Collins, 28, .293/.346/.467, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 3.3 WAR, R/R. Not the best defensive catcher around, but he busts his butt and is well-liked by everyone. Power was up last year, so that might regress; but he should still threaten to hit .300 every year.

C Orlando Villanueva, 25, .192/.245/.331, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 130 AB, L/R. Much better defensively than Collins, and should hit better than he did last year. Team leader, and with the best imitation Thurman Munson 'stache I've ever seen.

1B Jeremy Dunklee, 27, .315/.430/.521, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 5.4 WAR, L/L. Power numbers dropped off (from 42 and 36 HR the previous two seasons), but he did play much of the summer with a back strain. Still an all-star level hitter, and his fielding has improved to where he's no longer a Kingmanesque black hole at first. Looking for a bounce-back season this year.

1B Cisco Videira, 40, .298/.353/.440, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 302 AB, R/R. A steady, lifetime .300 hitter who can still bring it, he'll see more time at DH. Needs 72 hits for 3000 in his career, which might just get him into Cooperstown, despite more of an above-average career than a star-level one.

2B Josh Robertson, 23, .220/.267/.358, 109 AB, L/R. (Also hit .306 with 29 doubles in AAA.) The 'Moondog' was the second player taken in our first rookie draft, and he's finally getting his shot. He's a little guy (5'9", 170#) with no power, and won't walk much, but he won't strike out much either, and he's going to make a lot of contact. His good years should net him a .280-.290 average, with 35 or so doubles, and solid defense.

3B Adam Groff, 24, .335/.420/.701, 47 HR, 108 RBI, 8.7 WAR, L/R. A former #1 overall pick, who more than delivered on that hype last year. If he comes close to matching those numbers, I'll be overjoyed. He should compete for batting crowns, MVPs, and Gold Gloves nearly every year. I want to sign him until he's 40.

SS Jim Mullen, 29, .310/.353/.484, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 2.9 WAR, R/R. Mullen's the kind of guy every winning team needs: a hard worker who somehow hits above his weight and plays great defense. To wit: he made only 4 errors last year at short; he struck out just 25 times; he has hit .300 every year he's been a starter. This will be his third year in Hawaii, and one of these years I expect he'll drop off the table and hit .220. But not this year, Jim, okay?

IF Danny Holguin, 24, .230/.330/.311, 74 AB, R/R. (Also hit .257 in 377 AB in AAA.) Slightly above average at the plate (but just refuses to strike out), but will earn his bread in the field, where he's a stud at all three skill IF positions. Also a very good runner and a clubhouse leader.

LF Travis McArthur, 25, .306/.336/.536, 29 HR, 91 RBI, 3.6 WAR, R/R. Mr. "Your-Offer-Has-Insulted-Me" is our other former #1 overall pick, from 2034. He hasn't risen to superstar status, as befitting his draft position, but I'm still satisfied. He hits for contact, power, has some speed, and is a quality fielder (2037 Gold Glove LF) with a rifle arm. He may end up in right once prospect Mel Carillo comes along.

CF Josh Drayton, 26, .259/.319/.451, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 3.6 WAR, R/R. Looks very similar to McArthur, with less contact but better plate discipline. Another top fielder, with great range, and is also a whiz on the bases (67 SB in two seasons with us). Had a 9 WAR season in 2036, which he probably can't repeat, but I'm hoping for a better season at the plate this go-round.

RF Chris Wiggins, 27, .322/.357/.437, 5 HR, 58 RBI, 2.0 WAR, L/L. Hit for average last year, but missed out on double figures in triples for the first time in four seasons. In our new park, that shouldn't eat up doubles and triples, he should hit 40 and 15, easily. Yep.

OF Ernesto Martinez, 23, .225/.281/.403, 7 HR, 21 RBI, 191 AB, L/L. Jumped from A ball to the bigs last year, and struggled. Has the chops to hit 20 HR, I believe, even off the bench. A decent fielder but with limited range, he'll still be our de facto backup center fielder and premiere LH pinch hitter.

OF Kelvin Moreno, 31, .253/.320/.457, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 186 AB, L/L. A team leader, Moreno had his best year at the plate in 2037, and my fingers are crossed that he can do it again. He's really a below average hitter with some power, though, so we'll see... Also is an indifferent fielder, with a big arm. He'll be a free agent after this season, so this is probably his last trip around the park with us.


SP Ken Clark, 28, 4.15, 15-10, 208 IP, 161 H, 254 K, 42 HR, 1.7 WAR, RH. What will we get from Mr. Clark this year? The 6 WAR season from 2036, or last year's home run festival? Clark has fabulous stuff, with a truly elite curve and change. But when his movement isn't on, he gives up HR by the bushelful. We need 2036 Ken, not 2037 Ken.

SP Leon Casillas, 27, 3.17, 12-7, 238 IP, 207 K, 6.7 WAR (with the Cubs), RH. Our biggest free agency plunge ever. He brings elite stuff, movement, and control, and three great pitches along with being a groundball pitcher. He needs to dominate for us to rise to the level I think we can get to; he did have a great spring, so that's a good start.

SP Steve Brock, 28, 4.08, 13-10, 194 IP, 142 K, 2.3 WAR, RH. Now in his third year with us, he's being moved up a spot to #3, so we need him to deliver more consistently than he's done in the past. A pure junkballer, his fastball is just average, and he mostly brings a mix of a circle change and a knuckle curve. Good control, walking just two batters per 9 IP.

SP Eric Jones, 21, 2.66, 9-8, 172 IP, 132 H, 169 K in AAA, LH. Won a spot with a good spring, beating out two higher rated prospects. Was a 21st round pick in 2034, so he's already beaten the odds to get here. His control is just so-so, walking nearly 5 per 9 IP in the minors, but he has room to grow in that regard. Keeps the ball down. Stamina just fair.

SP Bobby Piccirillo, 24, 2.58, 13-7, 165 IP, 155 K in AAA, RH. Another surprise out of camp, as I had figured he might win a spot in long relief. Isn't elite in any respect, but features good control and four strong pitches. Is also a local kid, and is the first native Hawaiian to make the opening day roster for us.

CL Jack Shewmake, 29, 3.16, 37 IP, 44 K, 1 SV, RH. Posted a 2.2 WAR as a setup man in 2036, and was slated to be my closer last year, but got hurt in camp and didn't come back until August. He's good to go this year, however. He has the ratings to be the elite closer in MLB, and we'll need it all from him. He's in his contract year, and if he's as good as I think he can be, I'll spend big to bring him back.

RP Ryan Key, 29, 3.38, 35 IP, 39 K, 2 SV, RH. One of the last two original Islanders (along with Moreno), and has been a solid set up man for us for the last two years. Groundballer, with a nice sinker, but is still prone to giving up too many long balls. We'll watch him closely this year.

RP Steve Miller, 29, 2.10, 69 IP, 80 K, 40 SV, RH. Last year's closer will be our prime setup man this year. Has wicked movement and control, brining a fastball that can hit 101, and a great sinker to boot.

RP Matt Elie, 25, 5.11, 37 IP, 39 K, 1 SV with Brooklyn, RH. Our annual Rule 5 guy this year. His one issue has been his control, and he slumped to giving up 6 BB per 9 IP last year. If he can keep his walks down, he should be more than solid enough.

RP Chris Mayer, 27, 5.36, 47 IP, 37 K, 2 SV, RH. Struggled in his first full year in the majors, we need him to bounce back this time.

RP Aaron Glass, 27, 3.16, 83 IP, 90 K, 4 SV, LH. Had a solid year in middle relief for us, and needs to do it again. Must get his HR totals down (12 last year). Our only left-hander in the pen.

RP Justin Ragland, 30, 9.00, 1-5, 42 IP, 65 H, 48 K (plus 5.53, 57 IP, 55 K with Washington), RH. Was a disaster as a deadline-acquired starter for us last year, but fared better in the pen in September. Wants to be a starter, but won't get that chance with us again unless we're backed in a corner. Looked great in long relief in camp.

......

There you go, your 2038 Hawaii Islanders. The next six months will bring all sorts of emotions, high spots, low spots, injuries, inconsistencies, and unexpected performances. Despite MLB's prognostications, I think we can:
...win at least 90 games
...win our division
...get to the World Series

We're definitely in the conversation, and if your pre-season magazine or local talk radio show says otherwise, you're not getting your money's worth.

Next up: Play ball!