Quote:
Originally Posted by TuckerDuckson
Sure, I guess that is a valid point. Ricky Romero, Chris Perez, Allen Craig, all faltered around that 28-30 age range. Everyone eventually declines.
The problem I'm having here is that Archer is declining without fail during the 2018 season. His age 29 season. I mean there were signs that Craig, Perez, and Romero were trending in the wrong direction.
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Disagree on Romero. He overachieved in 2011, but it's hard to say anybody really saw 2012 coming. He was the same in 2011 as he was in 2009. To go from a 102 FIP-/94 xFIP- to a 122 FIP-/118 xFIP-...there's no signs for that. For comparison in 2009 he was 97 FIP-/92 xFIP-.
I get what you're trying to argue but Romero just fell apart. Guys do decline early but he wasn't trending in the wrong direction. He had a career year in 2011 but his 2009/2011 are pretty similar.