Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukas Berger
Yeah but this happens in real life as well, right? Who's to say it's "wrong"? Do we already know what the real Archer or Arrieta will actually do in 2020? Even if you're sure you know, did you tell us? 
Some guys age gracefully, some don't. Sometimes two guys can pitch at the same level at similar ages, then one will pitch effectively into their 40's and another is done in their late 20's. It happens. It's baseball. What would anyone have said 15 years ago if a game had Bartolo Colon still pitching in MLB in his mid 40's?
As far as that goes, it's not unreasonable to think a guy like Archer who is mostly a "thower" and depends on his great stuff is less likely to age well than a "pitcher" like Arrieta who is more well rounded. Maybe OOTP is actually ahead of the curve here. Maybe not too, but it's possible, no? |
Sure, I guess that is a valid point. Ricky Romero, Chris Perez, Allen Craig, all faltered around that 28-30 age range. Everyone eventually declines.
The problem I'm having here is that Archer is declining without fail during the 2018 season. His age 29 season. I mean there were signs that Craig, Perez, and Romero were trending in the wrong direction.
Craig absolutely lost his swing after that 2013 season, evidenced by his absolutely abhorrent BABIP, he wasn't just unlucky either his hard contact rate plummeted, his K% skyrocketed. He plain forgot how to swing a bat. But the evidence was in the precedent in 2014, he was trending down in spring training. He altered his swing for more power and it messed with him. Then his confidence was destroyed and he was never the same. The NL BA leader in 2013 could barely hit north of .180.
Romero had control issues. In his breakout year he had a 8.7%BB rate, in his absolute collapse in 2012 he walked 11.3%. His groundball rate dropped a percent, his HR/FB rate went up 5 percent. There was noticeable change in how he pitched. He was starting to trend down.
Perez had character issues. And once he started to put up middling reliever numbers he was dropped. After his two all star appearances he was putting up 4.00 ERAs with 5.00 FIPs. There was a trend that led to his release. One year he had home run problems, one year he had strikeout problems.
Archer? This year Archer has almost an identical xFIP (3.40ish) as he did last year, a 3.10 FIP, a higher K/9, lower BB/9, lower HR/FB rate (10%ish)
I mean his BABIP is a tad larger than his career average, his groundball rate is lower (41% compared to 47% last year). But his SIERA and FIPs are all normal, in the 3.50 range.
So how does this explain a 12-11 W/L with a 4.71 ERA in 2018 in my KC save? Or a 2-8 W/L with a 5.93 ERA in 2019? His K/9 dropped from 10.6 in 2017 in that save to 5.3 in 2019. Players do not cut their K/9s in half and still start in Major League baseball. His HR/9 rate has doubled too. And his BABIP is fine.
The point stands: In what part of ZIPS or whatever creates the player datafiles does it state for Chris Archer to pull an Allen Craig with no warning during the 2018 offseason. There is no reason for a sudden drop off in ratings. He's in his prime, it's not like he's 35, he's 29.
"Who's to say it's "wrong"?"
I say it's wrong. And I don't mean that in an antagonistic or pretentious way. I'm just saying that this isn't just an isolated event. In every save presented in this thread, Archer's ratings are completely tanked by 2018-2019. Why is this? Why is it that every time that Archer tanks. Sure we don't know what will happen years from now. We don't know how 30 year old Archer will perform, or 31 year old Archer. We don't know how 33 year old Arrieta will perform. But why is it in the game that we must suffer from one of the better pitchers in the game completely falling through the floorboards for no well explain reason outside of "Well, it happens IRL."
I know it happens IRL. But why is it happening in every save?
And yes, Archer is a "thrower" but so is Justin Verlander who is 36 in my Royals save and his ratings haven't changed at all. Literally they have all been the same for the past 2 years where Archer's have plummeted him to a middle reliever.
Personally, I think it has something to do with Archer's 2016 season where he put up a statistically fine season, with a sound FIP and SIERA, however he was 9-19 with a 4.00 something ERA. I think this may have messed with ZIPS or something. Because projections like this, that Archer would regress this hard without ANY warning is plain absurd.
Understand that I appreciate the hell out of this game, and all you guys do for it. And this isn't a "game breaker" for me. The thing is, I kinda see a flaw here with no explanation on "why?" Is there a "why?" I don't know. I just don't want to sound like an ass here.