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Bub13 · 07-10-2017, 07:58 PM

And away we go!

Wait. Before we get to that, let's take a minute for a quick look at the farm team results for 2037. Pretty good, if I say so myself.
AAA - Kansas City, 87-57, 1st place IL West Division; lost in first round of playoffs Columbus
AA - Lewiston, 70-72, 5th place in Eastern League North Division (best record ever for the Millers BY FAR)
A - Eureka, 76-64, 2nd place in California League North Division; lost playoff to Stockton
SA - Poughkeepsie, 41-29, 2nd place in New York-Penn League Stedler Division
R - Athens, 50-18, 1st place in Appalachian League East Division; won playoffs over Johnson City!
R - Boone Mountain, 27-41, 7th place in Appalachian League East Division (another best ever finish)

Four teams with a winning record, one league title, and the two losing-record teams had their best years ever. At the end of the season, our system was ranked 4th in MLB, but with Groff graduating, that will change significantly. Ok, onward...

THEM
...Cincinnati has been sold to Bobby Joslin, who describes himself as "financially charitable." Insiders, however, call him a "demanding meddler," aka a jerk.
...Washington and St Louis fired their manager, and manager and GM, respectively. No word on replacements yet.
...Philadelphia fired manager Andy Raaff, after numerous run-ins with the front office. Raaff led the Phils for seven years, making the playoffs three times. They missed the playoffs this year despite winning 95 games, after dropping a one-game play-in game against the Mets.

US
Time for the annual WTF message from our mysterious owner, Alexis Pagan: "Congrats on the season, Jim! I give you a score of 687. You should be proud! Also, I'm extending you for three more year, so you're mine! Ha ha! Just kidding. Oh, I'm also raising your budget to $116M for next year. And, uh, it's best if you don't ask where the money is coming from. Let's just say I've made some good investments! Hey, I gotta go, but before I do, my assistant tells me that I need to tell you to make the playoffs again next year, get a better second baseman, and bring me a championship by 2041! We're long overdue! Ok, later!" So, a personal raise, and a bigger budget...and yet, I can't shake the feeling that the FBI or INTERPOL might be calling me one day soon.

With my new budget in hand, accounting suggests we can afford to pay players $100M next year. Including arbitration estimates, we've got about 78M on the books already. We have 13 players going to arbitration; more about them down below. Five players have no contracts, and will become free agents: starting pitchers Tom DiFranco and Brady Dunne, relievers Bryan Dever and Vinny Cruz, and minor league outfielder Adam Dann. DiFranco is the toughest to lose, as he was my best starter for most of the season. But he's 32 and wants a six-year deal, with a bump in salary from 12M to 18M per season. No thanks. Dunne blew out his elbow in camp and missed the entire season; he had an option for 2038, but decided not to exercise it, so he's gone. I believe I can replace them both via in house options...and possibly through free agency (just wait). Dever and Cruz were solid for me all year, but want significant raises. Dever has near closer-level ratings, and wants to get paid like it, up from 1.8M to 5.5M. Cruz, who could probably be a decent starter for some teams, wants a bump from 980K to 2.6M per for three years. I've got six relievers on the books already, and am convinced I can find one or two more via trade, waiver pickup, or as cheaper free agents. Dann was signed to be a utility backup in case of injury, and never saw any big league time. Of note is that the four big leaguers are all good leaders, so anyone I look to bring in from the outside will get bonus points for strong leadership.

On top of those four, the usual raft of minor leaguers and wannabes have expiring contracts. After riffling through the pile, I offer several of them one year deals for 750K, the standard stuff. If they sign, good. If not, no sweat. Either way, they'll all have to go through waivers by spring, as I've no intent to keep any of them on the 40-man roster.

For the arb-eligible guys, no one wants to listen to any contract offers for more than one year, so it's off to arbitration we go...

But first, a trade interlude. Long-time readers know that I've been fairly, what, sour? Yeah, that's it, sour...on starting pitcher Jimmy Wunderlich for a couple of years now. His good ratings, high leadership, and extreme groundball tendency should fit perfectly for me, right? Well, he gives up 30 homers a year, only just got his ERA under 5 for the first time this season, and was scheduled to see his salary jump from 6.5M to 8.5M next year. Wanting to clear out the books and, once again, reconfigure my rotation, I decided he was expendable. Given that we're already losing two starters to free agency, as well as two relievers, I go looking league-wise for pitchers. After minutes of agonizing worry, I finally pull the trigger with Detroit, sending Wunderlich and prospect 3B Jason Woodcock (middling potential, but high INT/WE won't hurt his chances) to Detroit for pitcher Cory Taylor. He's 24, smart, a good leader, and a groundballer with a 97-mph fastball, a good curve, and a sinker that could get better. His stamina is enough that he's already my emergency starter. He's under team control for two more seasons, currently making minimum.

Ok, the arbitration results are in. First though, we offered Tom DiFranco a 13M qualifying offer, which he declined. At least we'll get a compensatory pick when he signs elsewhere. Others:
... OF Kelvin Moreno gets 850K (our offer, up from 750K) ... I'm fine with this; useful backup corner OF with HR power
... SP Steve Brock gets 3.5M (we offered 2.5M, up from 500K) ... expected this; affordable deal for a #3 or #4 starter
... IF Ervin Miranda gets 850K (our offer, up from 750K) ... slick fielder will be trade bait, what with two cheaper prospects pushing him
... RF Chris Wiggins gets 4.6M (our offer, up from 4M) ... hit .322 but with less power; good fielder; I'm fine with this
... RP Aaron Glass gets 1.344M (we offered 900K, up from 500K) ... pitched very well for us, so I'm okay with what is the going rate for quality bullpen arms
... 2B Ryan Hebert gets 900K (our offer, up from 800K) ... was subpar at 2B in the field, and with OBP below .300; owner wants him gone
... RP Jack Shewmake gets 6M (we offered 5M, up from 4.6M) ... so pricey, but actually pretty cheap for a closer, if he can stay healthy
... LF Travis McArthur gets 4.25M (we offered 3M, up from 500K) ... former #1 overall pick; now we go to work on a long-term deal
... SS Jim Mullen gets 3.97M (we offered 3.8M, up from 3.36M) ... hard-nosed role player every team needs; no complaints here
... RP Steve Miller signed for 2.44M, rather than go through arbitration (up from 1.18M) ... was our closer, but better suited for setup role
... C Austin Collins gets 3.75M (we offered 2.75M, up from 500K) ... not a good catcher, but a Ted Simmons-like hitter
... RP Justin Ragland gets 1.7M (our offer, up from 1.66M) ... deadline pickup was a disaster as a starter, but affordable as a reliever

Plus, those minor league free-agents-to-be that we tendered contracts to? All three signed, all three are pitchers: Nagateru Okazaki, Jorge Escalante, and Bobby Piccirillo. All saw time in AA and AAA, and all will probably go to AAA next year, should they not stand out in spring training. Piccirillo is the only one, to me, who has a chance.

Our final move before free agency is to re-sign manager Pat Wilson (me, sort of) to a five-year extension. No other staff needed extensions, and hopefully no one will retire. Four guys on the Hawaii personnel payroll will need offers next year.

2037 MLB AWARDS
AL Gold Gloves -- three Tigers win (C Masi Wada, 2B Javy Guereca, SS Tony Munoz), two Blue Jays (1B Preston Sorensen, LF Sean Shelden)
NL Gold Gloves -- two Austin players win (3B Logan Errington, CF Mike Newman)
AL Hoyt Wilhelm -- Josh Easterling, CLE ... 2.04 ERA, 49 SV, 121 K, 84 IP, got lucky in the playoffs ... HAW Steve Miller second place
NL Hoyt Wilhelm -- Max Stover, LAD ... 1.65 ERA, 46 SV, 107 K, 76 IP
AL Silver Sluggers -- 3B Adam Groff, HAW ... .335/.420/.701, 47 HR, 108 RBI, 9.1 WAR ... otherwise, TOR and BOS with two players each
NL Silver Sluggers -- only the Pirates have multiple players, with two (CF Brendan Glenn and RF Mike Blough)
AL Rookie of the Year -- 3B Adam Groff, HAW ... you know the stats ... MIA 3B Sergio Torres second, OAK 1B Pat Slind third
NL Rookie of the Year -- SP Chris Hymans, CHI ... 2.83, 10-8, 28 GP, 187 K, 159 IP ... NY RF Jose Archuleta second, LA CF David Holpp third
AL Manager of the Year -- Chris Harvey, BOS ... nine years, career record 697-761
NL Manager of the Year -- Jason Pearson, ATL ... first year with Braves, spent five years with Cubs, won *** title with Chunichi in 2035
AL Cy Young -- Jay Russo, HOU ... 2.51, 11-9, 263 K, 204 IP, 7.1 WAR ... TOR Curtis Thames second, OAK Ricky Hose third
NL Cy Young -- Gabe Delfin, NYM ... 2.62, 21-6, 244 K, 216 IP, 5.8 WAR ... RIC Gabe Pamperin second, POR Drew Falconbury third
AL Most Valuable Player -- 1B Preston Sorensen, TOR ... .338/.442/.663, 51/128, 11.3 WAR, his second MVP ... HAW Adam Groff second, TOR C Devlin Ransberger third
NL Most Valuable Player -- CF Brendan Glenn, PIT ... .356/.434/.717, 50/113, 10.5 WAR, his second MVP ... PHI 1B Nate Rogers second, MTL 3B Matt Anderson third

Team Positional Review and Off-Season Outlook
Catcher
Austin Collins, 27, R, waivers from MIL 11/2034 ... .293/.346/.467, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 532 PA, 3.7 WAR
Orlando Villanueva, 25, L, FA signing 12/2036 ... .192/.245/.331, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 140 PA, -0.1 WAR
Collins has had two consistent, strong years at the plate for us, and at 27, should be a fixture for some time. His only drawback is his lack of talent behind the plate. He's a smart guy, but doesn't appear to be growing into the position, so I may end up moving him back to DH one day, where he played in 2035. Villanueva did not produce like we hoped with the bat, but is a good defensive sub. He's also a strong leader, and with no one pushing him from AAA, he's set as the backup next year. Worrisome that there is no one in the pipeline who looks promising.
2038 Outlook: Set

First Base
Jeremy Dunklee, 27, L, FA signing 7/2034 ... .315/.430/.521, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 658 PA, 5.9 WAR
Cisco Videira, 39, L, FA signing 6/2037 ... .298/.353/.440, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 329 PA, 0.8 WAR
Nate Hullinger, 27, L, FA signing 2/2036 ... .204/.291/.352, 6 HR, 31 RBI, 261 PA, -0.8 WAR (.274/.345/.416, 5 HR in AAA)
Dunklee is still a franchise cornerstone, a reliable cleanup hitter with good plate discipline. Hopefully his power numbers will go back up with an injury-free 2038. Videira is a quality backup and DH, an aging star who is closing in on 3000 hits. He's also a good role model, probably a future coach, and is still rated well enough to have earned the one-year extension we offered in September. Hullinger started the season as the regular DH, but didn't hit, and found himself back in AAA, where he continued to struggle. He's got a great power stroke, but only managed 11 homers combined in 430 PA (after 34 in 480 the year before). He'll be in camp nonetheless.
2038 Outlook: Set

Second Base
Ryan Hebert, 29, R, expansion pick 2033 ... .272/.293/.343, 0 HR, 29 RBI, 554 PA, 0.6 WAR
Ervin Miranda, 25, L, trade with NYM 12/2035 ... .275/.342/.373, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 225 PA, 1.2 WAR
Josh Robertson, 22, L, 2nd round pick 2034 ... .220/.267/.358, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 117 PA, -0.1 WAR (.306/.344/.458 in AAA)
Hebert is one of the last original Islanders, but his time may finally have come to an end. Always a low-OBP guy, his .300+ average in the past offset that, but he struggled last year. He also rates well at second (having moved from third to accomodate Groff), but played below average, hurting the overall infield defense. Miranda had better numbers, and is a quality "supersub" who can play 2B/3B/SS equally well, but the future appears to be Robertson. He played much better in his second callup in late summer, and will likely be the penciled-in starter during camp. He's a good fielder, and my scouts tell me he'll hit everything but home runs. The question is what to do with Hebert and Miranda, since both want to start, and both are unhappy to not be hitting at the top of the lineup (where they definitely do not belong).
2038 Outlook: Up in the air

Third Base
Adam Groff, 23, L, 1st overall pick 2035 ... .335/.420/.701, 47 HR, 108 RBI, 551 PA, 9.1 WAR
Eddie Aguilera, 26, R, trade with CIN 1/2036 ... .206/.229/.368, 2 HR, 2 RBI, -0.1 WAR (.278/.309/.382 in AAA)
Groff is Mr. All Everything, just what you want in a first overall draft pick. He has all the tools: contact, power, speed, glove, and arm. My only concern is that he has suffered a number of minor to moderate injuries and bugs these last two years, and was clearly not the same player in the second half of 2037 (after hamstring and ankle problems) than he was in April through June. Aguilera is not a roster player at this point, but a useful guy to have in AAA as he is a dynamite fielder and quality human being.
2038 Outlook: Set

Shortstop
Jim Mullen, 29, R, waivers from CHC 2/2036 ... .310/.353/.484, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 412 PA, 3.2 WAR
Danny Holguin, 23, R, 12th round pick 2034 ... .230/.330/.311, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 88 PA -0.1 WAR (.257/.311/.369 in AAA)
Mullen has been a fantastic waiver pickup, a consistent hitter and fielder for two seasons. He did miss 50 games last season, and we struggled without him, as he makes the bottom of the lineup go. He's a former Silver Slugger winner, so he's got some pop. Holguin can play all three "skilled" infield positions, and is the first in line for the utility role should I get rid of both Miranda and Hebert. He's ready for a roster spot, although I'll use camp to see how the infield shakes out, so he could be back in AAA to start next season.
2038 Outlook: Set

Outfield
LF Travis McArthur, 25, R, 1st overall pick 2034 ... .306/.336/.536, 29 HR, 91 RBI, 524 PA, 4.0 WAR
CF Josh Drayton, 26, R, trade with SF 7/2035 ... .259/.319/.451, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 645 PA, 4.1 WAR
RF Chris Wiggins, 27, L, trade with KC 5/2035 ... .322/.357/.437, 5 HR, 58 RBI, 604 PA, 2.5 WAR
OF Kelvin Moreno, 30, L, expansion pick 2033 ... .253/.320/.457, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 209 PA, 0.3 WAR
OF Ernesto Martinez, 22, L, rule 5 pick 12/2036 ... .225/.281/.403, 7 HR, 21 RBI, -0.2 WAR
OF Jason Raymer, 28, L, trade with NYM 11/2036 ... .226/.276/.377, 1 HR, 4 RBI, -0.1 WAR (.251/.325/.432 in AAA)
Two years now with a stable outfield, and it's great. I highly recommend it. All three can hit, can run, and can throw. McArthur continues to develop, and with Groff and Dunklee is part of the team's foundation. Drayton's production dropped considerably (9.0 to 4.1 WAR), but he's still a sparkplug in the field and in the locker room (although not a sparkplug in game terms; I still don't have one of those). Wiggins struggled to stay healthy, but hit over .300 again, though with less power than in 2036. Moreno had a productive season off the bench, but Martinez didn't perform as we'd hoped. He's got power and contact to spare, so I'm hoping for better from him if we keep him around. Both are better as corner outfielders, and Raymer is the only backup who's a capable center fielder. But his hitting is subpar. There isn't much bubbling up from the minors, except for 20-year-old Mel Carillo, who was dynamite in AA, but is not likely to be ready for next year.
2038 Outlook: Starters are set, bench is flexible

Pitching
SP Ken Clark, 28, R, FA signing 10/2034 ... 4.15, 15-10, 208 IP, 254 K, 42 HR, 1.7 WAR
SP Bobby Little, 25, L, trade with RIC 6/2034 ... 2.60, 11-2, 114 IP, 100 K, 2.1 WAR
SP Steve Brock, 28, R, trade with SD 7/2035 ... 4.08, 13-10, 194 IP, 142 K, 2.3 WAR
SP Angelo Partida, 26, R, trade with MIN 7/2035 ... 3.19, 6-3, 62 IP, 34 K, 1.1 WAR (1.48, 6-3, 61 IP, 2.3 WAR in AAA)
RP Aaron Glass, 26, L, waivers from SEA 11/2036 ... 3.16, 2-4, 4 SV, 83 IP, 90 K, 0.8 WAR
RP Ryan Key, 29, R, FA signing 1/2037 ... 3.38, 2-5, 2 SV, 35 IP, 39 K, 0.1 WAR
RP Chris Mayer, 27, R, waivers from RIC 11/2036 ... 5.36, 1-2, 2 SV, 47 IP, 37 K, -0.3 WAR
RP Steve Miller, 29, R, FA signing 1/2037 ... 2.10, 6-3, 40 SV, 69 IP, 80 K, 1.3 WAR
RP Jack Shewmake, 28, R, trade with STL 12/2034 ... 3.16, 2-0, 1 SV, 37 IP, 44 K, 1.1 WAR (0.00, 6 SV, 12 IP, 14 K in AAA on rehab)
RP Justin Ragland, 30, R, trade with WAS 7/2037 ... 9.00, 1-5, 42 IP, 48 K, -0.1 WAR (5.53, 57 IP, 55 K with WAS)
RP Cory Taylor, 24, R, trade with DET 11/2037 ... 4.21, 1-1, 26 IP, 19 K, 0.3 WAR with DET

P Rob Hart, 21, R, 9th round pick 2034 ... 1 GP, 9 IP, 3.00 ERA (2.44, 7-3, 24 GP, 144 IP, 165 K, 4.0 WAR in AAA)
P Eric Jones, 21, L, 21st round pick 2034 ... 2.66, 9-8, 172 IP, 169 K, 2.1 WAR in AAA
P Mark Phillips, 25, R, FA signing 6/2034 ... 2.73, 2-1, 7 GP, 33 IP, 43 K, in AAA
P Bryan Hardin, 30, R, trade with COL 7/2035 ... 2.42, 6-4, 104 IP, 92 K in AAA
P Pat Stanley, 24, L, FA signing 7/2035 ... 3.00, 2 GP, 6 IP, 2 K (1.07, 49 SV, 76 IP, 76 K in AAA)
P Bobby Piccirillo, 24, R, trade with KC, 7/2037 ... 2.56, 13-7, 165 IP, 155 K, 4.4 WAR in AAA
P Jorge Escalante, 26, R, FA signing 7/2037 ... 0.56, 3-1, 31 IP, 39 K in AA-AAA

Starters: Clark and Little figure to be the top of the rotation next year. Brock is a competent #3. Partida has pitched well in two stints with the big club these two years, so he deserves a chance; he's not dominating, but gets guys out. With Rob Hart's continued development, we've got five starters that are MLB quality already. Jones and Phillips have been great at AAA, but I'm not convinced they've got the chops for the majors. Hardin has the ratings, but no stamina, so he's a middle/long relief guy at best. Piccirillo will get a long look in camp. I might target a FA signing to get another proven veteran in here by camp, as I'm not quite confident enough to only go with three established starters next year.

Relievers: Shewmake, when healthy, has dominant stuff. He's my closer. Miller closed this year, but I like him better as the 8th inning guy. Glass and Key are competent and proven, and Glass is one of our few left-handed options. Mayer needs to do better, as does Ragland. Both are expendable if they're outplayed in March. Taylor has promise, and has the chops be our emergency starter. Stanley can still get better, and I hope he does well in camp because I prefer having two lefties in the pen. Escalante is not much more than a hard thrower. I'll keep a close eye on the waiver wire--as usual--for any free pickups here too. It's also likely I'll put a developing starter here should I need an arm.

So...unlike previous years, I don't see any glaring weaknesses or obvious areas to target in free agency. I might go after a starting pitcher, depending on who's available. I might try another bullpen arm, again depending on who's out there. I doubt I'll go for any position players, unless there's a nice-hitting backup center fielder with a good glove. The good news is I've got just over $25M available, should someone pop out at me.

Next up: Off-season, contd.

07-10-2017, 07:58 PM	#48
Bub13 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: Maine Posts: 748	2037/38 Off-Season, part 1 And away we go! Wait. Before we get to that, let's take a minute for a quick look at the farm team results for 2037. Pretty good, if I say so myself. AAA - Kansas City, 87-57, 1st place IL West Division; lost in first round of playoffs Columbus AA - Lewiston, 70-72, 5th place in Eastern League North Division (best record ever for the Millers BY FAR) A - Eureka, 76-64, 2nd place in California League North Division; lost playoff to Stockton SA - Poughkeepsie, 41-29, 2nd place in New York-Penn League Stedler Division R - Athens, 50-18, 1st place in Appalachian League East Division; won playoffs over Johnson City! R - Boone Mountain, 27-41, 7th place in Appalachian League East Division (another best ever finish) Four teams with a winning record, one league title, and the two losing-record teams had their best years ever. At the end of the season, our system was ranked 4th in MLB, but with Groff graduating, that will change significantly. Ok, onward... THEM ...Cincinnati has been sold to Bobby Joslin, who describes himself as "financially charitable." Insiders, however, call him a "demanding meddler," aka a jerk. ...Washington and St Louis fired their manager, and manager and GM, respectively. No word on replacements yet. ...Philadelphia fired manager Andy Raaff, after numerous run-ins with the front office. Raaff led the Phils for seven years, making the playoffs three times. They missed the playoffs this year despite winning 95 games, after dropping a one-game play-in game against the Mets. US Time for the annual WTF message from our mysterious owner, Alexis Pagan: "Congrats on the season, Jim! I give you a score of 687. You should be proud! Also, I'm extending you for three more year, so you're mine! Ha ha! Just kidding. Oh, I'm also raising your budget to $116M for next year. And, uh, it's best if you don't ask where the money is coming from. Let's just say I've made some good investments! Hey, I gotta go, but before I do, my assistant tells me that I need to tell you to make the playoffs again next year, get a better second baseman, and bring me a championship by 2041! We're long overdue! Ok, later!" So, a personal raise, and a bigger budget...and yet, I can't shake the feeling that the FBI or INTERPOL might be calling me one day soon. With my new budget in hand, accounting suggests we can afford to pay players $100M next year. Including arbitration estimates, we've got about 78M on the books already. We have 13 players going to arbitration; more about them down below. Five players have no contracts, and will become free agents: starting pitchers Tom DiFranco and Brady Dunne, relievers Bryan Dever and Vinny Cruz, and minor league outfielder Adam Dann. DiFranco is the toughest to lose, as he was my best starter for most of the season. But he's 32 and wants a six-year deal, with a bump in salary from 12M to 18M per season. No thanks. Dunne blew out his elbow in camp and missed the entire season; he had an option for 2038, but decided not to exercise it, so he's gone. I believe I can replace them both via in house options...and possibly through free agency (just wait). Dever and Cruz were solid for me all year, but want significant raises. Dever has near closer-level ratings, and wants to get paid like it, up from 1.8M to 5.5M. Cruz, who could probably be a decent starter for some teams, wants a bump from 980K to 2.6M per for three years. I've got six relievers on the books already, and am convinced I can find one or two more via trade, waiver pickup, or as cheaper free agents. Dann was signed to be a utility backup in case of injury, and never saw any big league time. Of note is that the four big leaguers are all good leaders, so anyone I look to bring in from the outside will get bonus points for strong leadership. On top of those four, the usual raft of minor leaguers and wannabes have expiring contracts. After riffling through the pile, I offer several of them one year deals for 750K, the standard stuff. If they sign, good. If not, no sweat. Either way, they'll all have to go through waivers by spring, as I've no intent to keep any of them on the 40-man roster. For the arb-eligible guys, no one wants to listen to any contract offers for more than one year, so it's off to arbitration we go... But first, a trade interlude. Long-time readers know that I've been fairly, what, sour? Yeah, that's it, sour...on starting pitcher Jimmy Wunderlich for a couple of years now. His good ratings, high leadership, and extreme groundball tendency should fit perfectly for me, right? Well, he gives up 30 homers a year, only just got his ERA under 5 for the first time this season, and was scheduled to see his salary jump from 6.5M to 8.5M next year. Wanting to clear out the books and, once again, reconfigure my rotation, I decided he was expendable. Given that we're already losing two starters to free agency, as well as two relievers, I go looking league-wise for pitchers. After minutes of agonizing worry, I finally pull the trigger with Detroit, sending Wunderlich and prospect 3B Jason Woodcock (middling potential, but high INT/WE won't hurt his chances) to Detroit for pitcher Cory Taylor. He's 24, smart, a good leader, and a groundballer with a 97-mph fastball, a good curve, and a sinker that could get better. His stamina is enough that he's already my emergency starter. He's under team control for two more seasons, currently making minimum. Ok, the arbitration results are in. First though, we offered Tom DiFranco a 13M qualifying offer, which he declined. At least we'll get a compensatory pick when he signs elsewhere. Others: ... OF Kelvin Moreno gets 850K (our offer, up from 750K) ... I'm fine with this; useful backup corner OF with HR power ... SP Steve Brock gets 3.5M (we offered 2.5M, up from 500K) ... expected this; affordable deal for a #3 or #4 starter ... IF Ervin Miranda gets 850K (our offer, up from 750K) ... slick fielder will be trade bait, what with two cheaper prospects pushing him ... RF Chris Wiggins gets 4.6M (our offer, up from 4M) ... hit .322 but with less power; good fielder; I'm fine with this ... RP Aaron Glass gets 1.344M (we offered 900K, up from 500K) ... pitched very well for us, so I'm okay with what is the going rate for quality bullpen arms ... 2B Ryan Hebert gets 900K (our offer, up from 800K) ... was subpar at 2B in the field, and with OBP below .300; owner wants him gone ... RP Jack Shewmake gets 6M (we offered 5M, up from 4.6M) ... so pricey, but actually pretty cheap for a closer, if he can stay healthy ... LF Travis McArthur gets 4.25M (we offered 3M, up from 500K) ... former #1 overall pick; now we go to work on a long-term deal ... SS Jim Mullen gets 3.97M (we offered 3.8M, up from 3.36M) ... hard-nosed role player every team needs; no complaints here ... RP Steve Miller signed for 2.44M, rather than go through arbitration (up from 1.18M) ... was our closer, but better suited for setup role ... C Austin Collins gets 3.75M (we offered 2.75M, up from 500K) ... not a good catcher, but a Ted Simmons-like hitter ... RP Justin Ragland gets 1.7M (our offer, up from 1.66M) ... deadline pickup was a disaster as a starter, but affordable as a reliever Plus, those minor league free-agents-to-be that we tendered contracts to? All three signed, all three are pitchers: Nagateru Okazaki, Jorge Escalante, and Bobby Piccirillo. All saw time in AA and AAA, and all will probably go to AAA next year, should they not stand out in spring training. Piccirillo is the only one, to me, who has a chance. Our final move before free agency is to re-sign manager Pat Wilson (me, sort of) to a five-year extension. No other staff needed extensions, and hopefully no one will retire. Four guys on the Hawaii personnel payroll will need offers next year. 2037 MLB AWARDS AL Gold Gloves -- three Tigers win (C Masi Wada, 2B Javy Guereca, SS Tony Munoz), two Blue Jays (1B Preston Sorensen, LF Sean Shelden) NL Gold Gloves -- two Austin players win (3B Logan Errington, CF Mike Newman) AL Hoyt Wilhelm -- Josh Easterling, CLE ... 2.04 ERA, 49 SV, 121 K, 84 IP, got lucky in the playoffs ... HAW Steve Miller second place NL Hoyt Wilhelm -- Max Stover, LAD ... 1.65 ERA, 46 SV, 107 K, 76 IP AL Silver Sluggers -- 3B Adam Groff, HAW ... .335/.420/.701, 47 HR, 108 RBI, 9.1 WAR ... otherwise, TOR and BOS with two players each NL Silver Sluggers -- only the Pirates have multiple players, with two (CF Brendan Glenn and RF Mike Blough) AL Rookie of the Year -- 3B Adam Groff, HAW ... you know the stats ... MIA 3B Sergio Torres second, OAK 1B Pat Slind third NL Rookie of the Year -- SP Chris Hymans, CHI ... 2.83, 10-8, 28 GP, 187 K, 159 IP ... NY RF Jose Archuleta second, LA CF David Holpp third AL Manager of the Year -- Chris Harvey, BOS ... nine years, career record 697-761 NL Manager of the Year -- Jason Pearson, ATL ... first year with Braves, spent five years with Cubs, won * title with Chunichi in 2035 AL Cy Young -- Jay Russo, HOU ... 2.51, 11-9, 263 K, 204 IP, 7.1 WAR ... TOR Curtis Thames second, OAK Ricky Hose third NL Cy Young -- Gabe Delfin, NYM ... 2.62, 21-6, 244 K, 216 IP, 5.8 WAR ... RIC Gabe Pamperin second, POR Drew Falconbury third AL Most Valuable Player -- 1B Preston Sorensen, TOR ... .338/.442/.663, 51/128, 11.3 WAR, his second MVP ... HAW Adam Groff second, TOR C Devlin Ransberger third NL Most Valuable Player -- CF Brendan Glenn, PIT ... .356/.434/.717, 50/113, 10.5 WAR, his second MVP ... PHI 1B Nate Rogers second, MTL 3B Matt Anderson third Team Positional Review and Off-Season Outlook Catcher Austin Collins, 27, R, waivers from MIL 11/2034 ... .293/.346/.467, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 532 PA, 3.7 WAR Orlando Villanueva, 25, L, FA signing 12/2036 ... .192/.245/.331, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 140 PA, -0.1 WAR Collins has had two consistent, strong years at the plate for us, and at 27, should be a fixture for some time. His only drawback is his lack of talent behind the plate. He's a smart guy, but doesn't appear to be growing into the position, so I may end up moving him back to DH one day, where he played in 2035. Villanueva did not produce like we hoped with the bat, but is a good defensive sub. He's also a strong leader, and with no one pushing him from AAA, he's set as the backup next year. Worrisome that there is no one in the pipeline who looks promising. 2038 Outlook: Set First Base Jeremy Dunklee, 27, L, FA signing 7/2034 ... .315/.430/.521, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 658 PA, 5.9 WAR Cisco Videira, 39, L, FA signing 6/2037 ... .298/.353/.440, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 329 PA, 0.8 WAR Nate Hullinger, 27, L, FA signing 2/2036 ... .204/.291/.352, 6 HR, 31 RBI, 261 PA, -0.8 WAR (.274/.345/.416, 5 HR in AAA) Dunklee is still a franchise cornerstone, a reliable cleanup hitter with good plate discipline. Hopefully his power numbers will go back up with an injury-free 2038. Videira is a quality backup and DH, an aging star who is closing in on 3000 hits. He's also a good role model, probably a future coach, and is still rated well enough to have earned the one-year extension we offered in September. Hullinger started the season as the regular DH, but didn't hit, and found himself back in AAA, where he continued to struggle. He's got a great power stroke, but only managed 11 homers combined in 430 PA (after 34 in 480 the year before). He'll be in camp nonetheless. 2038 Outlook: Set Second Base Ryan Hebert, 29, R, expansion pick 2033 ... .272/.293/.343, 0 HR, 29 RBI, 554 PA, 0.6 WAR Ervin Miranda, 25, L, trade with NYM 12/2035 ... .275/.342/.373, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 225 PA, 1.2 WAR Josh Robertson, 22, L, 2nd round pick 2034 ... .220/.267/.358, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 117 PA, -0.1 WAR (.306/.344/.458 in AAA) Hebert is one of the last original Islanders, but his time may finally have come to an end. Always a low-OBP guy, his .300+ average in the past offset that, but he struggled last year. He also rates well at second (having moved from third to accomodate Groff), but played below average, hurting the overall infield defense. Miranda had better numbers, and is a quality "supersub" who can play 2B/3B/SS equally well, but the future appears to be Robertson. He played much better in his second callup in late summer, and will likely be the penciled-in starter during camp. He's a good fielder, and my scouts tell me he'll hit everything but home runs. The question is what to do with Hebert and Miranda, since both want to start, and both are unhappy to not be hitting at the top of the lineup (where they definitely do not belong). 2038 Outlook: Up in the air Third Base Adam Groff, 23, L, 1st overall pick 2035 ... .335/.420/.701, 47 HR, 108 RBI, 551 PA, 9.1 WAR Eddie Aguilera, 26, R, trade with CIN 1/2036 ... .206/.229/.368, 2 HR, 2 RBI, -0.1 WAR (.278/.309/.382 in AAA) Groff is Mr. All Everything, just what you want in a first overall draft pick. He has all the tools: contact, power, speed, glove, and arm. My only concern is that he has suffered a number of minor to moderate injuries and bugs these last two years, and was clearly not the same player in the second half of 2037 (after hamstring and ankle problems) than he was in April through June. Aguilera is not a roster player at this point, but a useful guy to have in AAA as he is a dynamite fielder and quality human being. 2038 Outlook: Set Shortstop Jim Mullen, 29, R, waivers from CHC 2/2036 ... .310/.353/.484, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 412 PA, 3.2 WAR Danny Holguin, 23, R, 12th round pick 2034 ... .230/.330/.311, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 88 PA -0.1 WAR (.257/.311/.369 in AAA) Mullen has been a fantastic waiver pickup, a consistent hitter and fielder for two seasons. He did miss 50 games last season, and we struggled without him, as he makes the bottom of the lineup go. He's a former Silver Slugger winner, so he's got some pop. Holguin can play all three "skilled" infield positions, and is the first in line for the utility role should I get rid of both Miranda and Hebert. He's ready for a roster spot, although I'll use camp to see how the infield shakes out, so he could be back in AAA to start next season. 2038 Outlook: Set Outfield LF Travis McArthur, 25, R, 1st overall pick 2034 ... .306/.336/.536, 29 HR, 91 RBI, 524 PA, 4.0 WAR CF Josh Drayton, 26, R, trade with SF 7/2035 ... .259/.319/.451, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 645 PA, 4.1 WAR RF Chris Wiggins, 27, L, trade with KC 5/2035 ... .322/.357/.437, 5 HR, 58 RBI, 604 PA, 2.5 WAR OF Kelvin Moreno, 30, L, expansion pick 2033 ... .253/.320/.457, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 209 PA, 0.3 WAR OF Ernesto Martinez, 22, L, rule 5 pick 12/2036 ... .225/.281/.403, 7 HR, 21 RBI, -0.2 WAR OF Jason Raymer, 28, L, trade with NYM 11/2036 ... .226/.276/.377, 1 HR, 4 RBI, -0.1 WAR (.251/.325/.432 in AAA) Two years now with a stable outfield, and it's great. I highly recommend it. All three can hit, can run, and can throw. McArthur continues to develop, and with Groff and Dunklee is part of the team's foundation. Drayton's production dropped considerably (9.0 to 4.1 WAR), but he's still a sparkplug in the field and in the locker room (although not a sparkplug in game terms; I still don't have one of those). Wiggins struggled to stay healthy, but hit over .300 again, though with less power than in 2036. Moreno had a productive season off the bench, but Martinez didn't perform as we'd hoped. He's got power and contact to spare, so I'm hoping for better from him if we keep him around. Both are better as corner outfielders, and Raymer is the only backup who's a capable center fielder. But his hitting is subpar. There isn't much bubbling up from the minors, except for 20-year-old Mel Carillo, who was dynamite in AA, but is not likely to be ready for next year. 2038 Outlook: Starters are set, bench is flexible Pitching SP Ken Clark, 28, R, FA signing 10/2034 ... 4.15, 15-10, 208 IP, 254 K, 42 HR, 1.7 WAR SP Bobby Little, 25, L, trade with RIC 6/2034 ... 2.60, 11-2, 114 IP, 100 K, 2.1 WAR SP Steve Brock, 28, R, trade with SD 7/2035 ... 4.08, 13-10, 194 IP, 142 K, 2.3 WAR SP Angelo Partida, 26, R, trade with MIN 7/2035 ... 3.19, 6-3, 62 IP, 34 K, 1.1 WAR (1.48, 6-3, 61 IP, 2.3 WAR in AAA) RP Aaron Glass, 26, L, waivers from SEA 11/2036 ... 3.16, 2-4, 4 SV, 83 IP, 90 K, 0.8 WAR RP Ryan Key, 29, R, FA signing 1/2037 ... 3.38, 2-5, 2 SV, 35 IP, 39 K, 0.1 WAR RP Chris Mayer, 27, R, waivers from RIC 11/2036 ... 5.36, 1-2, 2 SV, 47 IP, 37 K, -0.3 WAR RP Steve Miller, 29, R, FA signing 1/2037 ... 2.10, 6-3, 40 SV, 69 IP, 80 K, 1.3 WAR RP Jack Shewmake, 28, R, trade with STL 12/2034 ... 3.16, 2-0, 1 SV, 37 IP, 44 K, 1.1 WAR (0.00, 6 SV, 12 IP, 14 K in AAA on rehab) RP Justin Ragland, 30, R, trade with WAS 7/2037 ... 9.00, 1-5, 42 IP, 48 K, -0.1 WAR (5.53, 57 IP, 55 K with WAS) RP Cory Taylor, 24, R, trade with DET 11/2037 ... 4.21, 1-1, 26 IP, 19 K, 0.3 WAR with DET P Rob Hart, 21, R, 9th round pick 2034 ... 1 GP, 9 IP, 3.00 ERA (2.44, 7-3, 24 GP, 144 IP, 165 K, 4.0 WAR in AAA) P Eric Jones, 21, L, 21st round pick 2034 ... 2.66, 9-8, 172 IP, 169 K, 2.1 WAR in AAA P Mark Phillips, 25, R, FA signing 6/2034 ... 2.73, 2-1, 7 GP, 33 IP, 43 K, in AAA P Bryan Hardin, 30, R, trade with COL 7/2035 ... 2.42, 6-4, 104 IP, 92 K in AAA P Pat Stanley, 24, L, FA signing 7/2035 ... 3.00, 2 GP, 6 IP, 2 K (1.07, 49 SV, 76 IP, 76 K in AAA) P Bobby Piccirillo, 24, R, trade with KC, 7/2037 ... 2.56, 13-7, 165 IP, 155 K, 4.4 WAR in AAA P Jorge Escalante, 26, R, FA signing 7/2037 ... 0.56, 3-1, 31 IP, 39 K in AA-AAA Starters: Clark and Little figure to be the top of the rotation next year. Brock is a competent #3. Partida has pitched well in two stints with the big club these two years, so he deserves a chance; he's not dominating, but gets guys out. With Rob Hart's continued development, we've got five starters that are MLB quality already. Jones and Phillips have been great at AAA, but I'm not convinced they've got the chops for the majors. Hardin has the ratings, but no stamina, so he's a middle/long relief guy at best. Piccirillo will get a long look in camp. I might target a FA signing to get another proven veteran in here by camp, as I'm not quite confident enough to only go with three established starters next year. Relievers: Shewmake, when healthy, has dominant stuff. He's my closer. Miller closed this year, but I like him better as the 8th inning guy. Glass and Key are competent and proven, and Glass is one of our few left-handed options. Mayer needs to do better, as does Ragland. Both are expendable if they're outplayed in March. Taylor has promise, and has the chops be our emergency starter. Stanley can still get better, and I hope he does well in camp because I prefer having two lefties in the pen. Escalante is not much more than a hard thrower. I'll keep a close eye on the waiver wire--as usual--for any free pickups here too. It's also likely I'll put a developing starter here should I need an arm. So...unlike previous years, I don't see any glaring weaknesses or obvious areas to target in free agency. I might go after a starting pitcher, depending on who's available. I might try another bullpen arm, again depending on who's out there. I doubt I'll go for any position players, unless there's a nice-hitting backup center fielder with a good glove. The good news is I've got just over $25M available, should someone pop out at me. Next up:** Off-season, contd.