[DawnBTVS]

Another issue with Judge is his age and that he's 25 years old. It's just something I can't get past. Nearly every superstar HR hitter that you can think of, they were showcasing 35+ HR power anywhere from 21-23 years old (much like Cody Bellinger is and he's just 21. Where's the thread for him?)

The closest comparisons to Judge as far as this power explosion at his age I can find are the following players...
- Jose Bautista: Exploded at age 29 with a 54 HR Season. He's currently sitting at 322 HR for his career and is 36 years old this year.
- Albert Belle: Exploded at age 24. Retired due to degenerative hip. From 1991-2000 he had 373 HR. Probably would have finished around 425 for his career if healthy.
- Andres Galarraga: Coors Factor. Power came at age 27. From 1988-2000 he hit 335 HR but also had serious medical issues. Could've finished career around 430 HR if he stayed healthy.
- Jason Giambi: Hit 20 HR at age 25 (1996) and played until he was 43 years old. From 1996-2008 he had hit 390 HR.
- Ryan Howard: Exploded for 58 HR at age 26 but hit 22 HR the year prior in just 348 PA. From 2005-2011 he hit 284 HR but finished career with just 382.
- Jim Thome: There are two caveats here - He played until he was 41 years old and he had 2 years of 20 & 25 HR before he exploded for 38 at 25 years old.

With the sole exception of Jim Thome, an extreme aberration in MLB history really, the majority of those players finished around 380-440 HR for their careers. Even really looking around guys like Todd Helton hit 49 HR at age 27.

I'm struggling to find any reasonable expectation that he'll be a Future Hall of Famer. He's definitely All-Star caliber but I'd hedge my bets that he'll end up more like a Jason Giambi/Ryan Howard type power hitter at the high upside.

Also be careful of relying so heavily on the Pre-All Star Break factor as it's only half a season. How well is Judge gonna do when he's around 110-120 games played?

Rates for Career Pre-ASB and Post-ASB
Hank Aaron: 1st Half HR/G = 0.244 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.212
Barry Bonds: 1st Half HR/G = 0.251 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.260*
Ken Griffey Jr: 1st Half HR/G = 0.244 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.225
Aaron Judge: 1st Half HR/G = 0.358 (2017) vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.148 (2016)
Mark McGwire: 1st Half HR/G = 0.317 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.304
Albert Pujols: 1st Half HR/G = 0.242 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.239
Alex Rodriguez: 1st Half HR/G = 0.244 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.257*
Babe Ruth: 1st Half HR/G = 0.299 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.271
Sammy Sosa: 1st Half HR/G = 0.241 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.282*
Frank Thomas: 1st Half HR/G = 0.229 vs. 2nd Half HR/G = 0.218