Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFatGuy
As I've said before, there is probably something to the idea that batters gain some advantage the more they see a pitcher overall and the more they see him in a given day.... but most of the decline in effectiveness over the course of a game is almost certainly due to pitcher fatigue and not this "benefit."
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I think you can play logic games on this until you get tied into knots. When you use "probably" or "almost certainly" in a sentence, you need to keep in mind that you don't actually know. And, in fact, I doubt there are many folks on this board who can actually say with 100% certainty exactly how the proportions should be weighted.
1. There is considerable data to show that it's a complex mapping of effects (fatigue, batter familiarity, effect of arsenal depth and quality among others).
2. All of those effects change by pitcher.
3. Some of those effects change by batter.
4. To leave any of them out would probably be wrong. Note the word "probably" there.
5. To weight any of them massively over the other would also probably be wrong. Again with the "probably."
6. I think the game needs to acknowledge all these in some series of algorithms that let them play together naturally, and therefore creates an overall effect that makes sense and feels right.
7. I think it seems to do it quite well overall. If one sees something deeply wrong in the results, it's good to highlight it.