Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePretender
Yeah you can look up a half dozen fangraphs articles detailing league average splits for first/second/third time through the order. And you can compare it to individual pitchers. Pretty easy to come up with a the exact run differential for using a SP third time through the order vs a fresh RP if you wanted to.
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yes, but those are real human beings and you can certainly try to predict today's performance based on the players previous stats. You may be successful and you may not. When you're not you can blame a lot of things based on the human being you did or did not take out of the game. In OOTP you only have ratings that are trying to simulate a human being. Those ratings don't change because your brother was in a car accident last night and you are not concentrating as you normally do. Or you kid is getting in trouble in school but you're a 1,000 miles away on the road and your wife has to go in tomorrow to try to sort it out. Or the roadie that came up to your room last night didn't leave you much time to sleep
In real life you would be trying to predict performance based on past performance. In OOTP you would be predicting performance based on an exact mathematical formula if it were spelled out as some are asking for.
OOTP is a game driven by ratings and when you put a 60 rated pitcher out there and are also told how the underlying engine treats a player on the third time around IE he becomes a 45 than that is what he becomes. So a 50 RP would always be the way to go. This is what chazzycat is asking for, the exact formula OOTP uses to he can make the best move. I don't care how much real life stats you study you won't come up with a formula that is always right.
I could be wrong but I really don't think OOTP is even that simplistic with it's ratings. It won't be as simple as a 60 becomes a 45, other things will factor in. Is the P on a roll tossing a shutout and only giving up 1 hit? Or have there been two errors behind him costing him unearned runs? I think any of us that play out our games have seen pitchers "flustered" and had a game get away from them. I've had pitchers throwing against me with ratings of 4-8-8 on the 1-20 scale pitch like the second coming of Kofax and shut me out. How did he do that for 9 innings when those ratings take a dive on the third time through?
I've also seen a no-hitter from one of my pitchers that had no business throwing one(a #4 SP at best). Luck of the dice rolls or did momentum carry an average pitcher to a once in a lifetime game? My answer? I don't care. The beauty of OOTP is it strives to convince me that I am seeing a real baseball game and it does a great job of that. If I know exactly how the engine works then what's the point of playing?