[LivnLegend]

Fight To the Finish

The Reds and the Braves, baseball's two best teams, will battle all the way to October

By Tim Kurkjian

Welcome to the National League best, home of the two best teams in baseball (Reds and Braves), the two best rotations (Reds and Braves) and the two best bullpens (Reds and Braves), No division can match it for quality starting pitchers (10 pitchers have a legitimate shot at 20 wins), lefthanded hitters (seven of baseball's 13 best play here) or off-season improvement

Everyone's bitter, too. Baseball's most contentious division the last two years will become only more intense with the off-season trades within the West of pitcher Tim Belcher (Dodgers to Reds), reliever Randy Myers (Reds to Padres) and outfielders Bip Roberts (Padres to Reds) and Eric Davis (Reds to Dodgers).

The West will feature a catcher now playing second base, a shortstop with 60-error capability, a team with a 26-game road trip, Dibble and Deion, Orel and Roberts, and—together at last—Davis and Darryl. All this plus Reds and Braves, a duel that will go the distance.

Predictions:
1. Reds: Their top four starters—Greg Swindell, Tim Belcher, Tom Browning and Jose Rijo—threw 882 innings last year. All have 20-win stuff. "When I saw who we got in trades, I couldn't believe it," says Rijo. "I said, 'No way, Jose.' " Equally delirious is Swindell: In his six years with the Indians, his winning percentage was .522, while the team's was .432. In 1991 he was burned by the most unearned runs (20) in baseball.

But the Reds' most important winter deal was for Bip Roberts, a lifetime .291 hitter who can play the outfield and the infield, hit leadoff and steal bases.

2. Braves: Everyone knows these guys now. Steve Avery is being compared to Sandy Koufax, Ron Gant is the new Bobby Bonds, and David Justice is looking more like Billy Williams with an attitude. We know all about the Lemmer's size, John Smoltz's shrink, Tom Glavine's slap shot, Terry Pendleton's MVP and Deion Sanders's progress. The Braves won't sneak up on anyone this year.

3. Dodgers: Grounder to Daniels, he boots it, the ball ricochets to Samuel at second, he bobbles it, throws to Offerman covering second, he drops it, then throws way over third base and into the Dodger dugout. Two runs are in. Tommy is steaming....

Let's hear Vin Scully make that sequence sound poetic. He'll have plenty of opportunities this year. The Dodgers, one of the very few organizations that has consistently chosen pitching and offense over defense, will pay for it this season. Oh, they'll be a factor in the race because they have firepower (the Davis-Butler-Darryl Strawberry outfield should hit 60 homers and score 270 runs) and good pitching. But with the Dodger defense, the pitching has to be great to win. The only chance of that happening is if Ramon Martinez snaps his slump (he got rocked the last two months of '91 and again this spring) and his brother Pedro, a 20-year-old phenom, pitches his way out of the minors and into the rotation before June.

4. Padres: The Padres finished third last year, and they could finish in the top half of the division again if Gary Sheffield hits and new second baseman Kurt Stillwell makes a successful switch from shortstop. But "if we have injuries, we have problems," says manager Riddoch. "We're not deep. We don't have anyone on our bench with more than a year's experience."

5. Giants: Kevin Mitchell, traded to Seattle last December, will be missed. The Giants finished 19 games out of first last year and scored 100 fewer runs than Atlanta. The Giants' '92 Opening Day outfield—Darren Lewis, Willie McGee and Kevin Bass—collectively hit 15 homers and drove in 98 runs in '91. That puny production will put a strain on the number 3 and 4 hitters, Will Clark and Matt Williams. "I'd walk Clark every time I possibly could," says one NL scout. "Like in high school, just wave him down to first base. You can pitch to Williams, but not Clark."

6. Astros: We're calling for a moratorium on Astro-bashing this year. This isn't the time for bashing, it's a time for pity. The poor 'Stros are stuck in this monster division while they're in the middle of a massive rebuilding program. Last place is a lock no matter how hard they play. Manager Art Howe deserves better. So does coach Ed Ott, who in March underwent the 10th operation on his knees. ("There should be something like frequent-flyer points once you get to double figures on surgery," Ott says.) And on July 27 the Astros will begin a 26-game, 28-day, 9,186-mile road trip so that the Republican party can hold its convention in the Astrodome. (If you want to bash Astro owner John McMullen, the man responsible for that ridiculous schedule, go right ahead.)

"We will be better than last year," says Howe, "but it might not show in the win column." Ah, but it will next year. The National League is expanding.