Quote:
Originally Posted by drhay53
It could also be that the market changed over the offseason as players were signed to actual contracts (which by definition change the market value). I would expect a player's market value to 'look' higher at the beginning of the offseason as all the best free agents have crazy contract demands that slowly decrease over time.
This is a somewhat intellectual exercise for me as I'm not sure it matters too much in how I'll manage my team, but if I knew the answer it might affect the way I weight AI evaluation. Glad other people are interested  |
this is somethign i always forget... it only affects Overall/potential rating... or just overall, whatever..
so, a high batting average won't show you a higher contact rating... it merely ups overall if they are batting better than their ratings indicates.
dont even look at the estimates if looking into this... always compare resulting contracts. estimates ahve purposely inaccurate or out-dated info - similar in concept to scouting inaccuracy.
you simply have to find a few playrs that perform in a similar statistical fashio, but one is noticeable rated more highly. see enough of those situations and you can be 99% certain weither the ratings influence arbitration...
logically, it shouldn't, but if it's used as some kind of "third rail" to guide what 'should happen' i wouldn't be surprised either.. it takes a really lucky year to outperform your ratings... it's not somethign that can happen a ton or for more than 1 year, typically.
weren't there patch notes in the past years saying arb estimates were being too influenced by ratings or the gist like that?? if you can find rhetoric like that in the patchnotes, it's hard to deny they are involved. you be able to get some good info if you can google up all the old patch notes and seasrch for various phrases relating to this.
Heck, in RL your previous contract helps set your value nearly as much as your production.... if you come out of arbitration at ~8m you expect a raise... and very likely get it, too. even if someone perfromed nearly as well, if they exit at ~6m for their last arb year, they very likely don't get as big of a bump becuae of being paid less the preivous year than the other guy, ceterus paribus (except in more extreme instances of results).