Quote:
Originally Posted by Klaus 74
This is where it gets more interesting....The example I gave was right at the end of the regular season, when the arbitration process begins.The suggested amounts offered are the same as what the previous teams' owner was going to do but they only got traded that day as well and the amounts can be changed manually. So I simmed ahead to the Free Agents File date. I forced a trade between Jackie Bradley Jr. of Boston, and Jacob deGrom of the Mets. Bradley's arbitration's estimates after the season were going to be 8.9 and 11.6M if he wasn't traded and deGrom's 10.2 and 13.2 if he wasn't traded. I then simmed to the Preseason date. Now Bradley's numbers are 7.9 and 10.0 with his new team while deGrom's are 10.2 and 12.0 with his new team. No games have been played in between. So, in part, what the owner is offering a player in arbitration is influenced by the value of that player as determined by his scout as long as there was enough time for an evaluation.
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It could also be that the market changed over the offseason as players were signed to actual contracts (which by definition change the market value). I would expect a player's market value to 'look' higher at the beginning of the offseason as all the best free agents have crazy contract demands that slowly decrease over time.
This is a somewhat intellectual exercise for me as I'm not sure it matters too much in how I'll manage my team, but if I knew the answer it might affect the way I weight AI evaluation. Glad other people are interested
