Quote:
Originally Posted by Viridel
I have a Reliever who was just awarded $1.5M in Arbitration. He's a guy I'd like to stick around, so I offer him an extension. He wants 2M for a year. Well, that's silly, I already have him for 1.5. I offer him a 6 year deal with a standard 250k escalator, starting at the 2M he wants (ending with a team option of 3.5M)... He tells me he doesn't want to lock up that long (fair enough - although it's not like Relievers aren't easily replaceable), but now his ONE year ask is 3.15M - remember, this is a guy I already have locked up for the year at 1.5.
Arbitration 2019 Salary 1.5M
Wants a 1-Year (2019) contract of 2M
Offer Extension of 2.0 (2019, replacing the arbitration amount), 2.25, 2.5, 2.75, 3.0, & 3.5 (2024, T.O.)
Declines, and now apparently thinks "well, they want me long term, so let's increase my 1-year ask to double what they are already paying me for the year"
Wait, what?
Contract extensions are just absurd. You have no idea what the player wants, or will accept... And if they disagree with your offer, they jack up their initial ask (for one year, while currently under contract) by 50%???
PS. According to his player sheet, he's Arbitration eligible again after this year, with an expectation of 1.7M - so even the information the game is giving me is contradictory.
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In my experience i can never re-sign an RP long-term while not in the last year of arbitration... maybe that's changed in '18?
i have a very good idea of what they will demand based on previous year's demand... so, something is off about your perception. i don't always know who will take an multi-year extension, but even that is fairly predictable.
the initial estimates for next years arb values are supposedly better predictors than previous versions, but i'd still learn on your own and use your own estimates a player of various quality typically scales in similar ways to others of the same quality.
that reliever isn't likely to sign for only a few hundred k more the following arbitration unless his production dips significantly (that's a factor. if he plays extremely well, it may very well nearly double.
role / results / ratings - i say ratings because if you use a SP-prospect as an RP for their first 2-4 years they typically demand SP-type money in arbitration, regardless of their role - that was from '17)
i do use "offer contract" to see who is interested in multiple years, but most of the time arbitration is the cheaper 1-year deal. if a MR starts is going to ask for 6-8+M by the last 2 years - based on initial demands and specualting about his future performance, i know to get rid of them before it is a problem to my budget. maybe that's changed in '18.
understand by position ... by role ... how good they actually are (specualtion as well as possibly direct influence).