Quote:
Originally Posted by baseballonly
I'm not understanding this...why are you comparing personalities with potential ratings? Shouldn't you be comparing them with whether or not the players actually reach their potential? Or am I missing something?
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Well, the thing we're trying to understand is what factors contribute to a player's chance of making the major leagues. (if I ever did this again I'd probably use Career WAR or something like that as the dependent variable)
My original data is a big table of 10,000+ simulated players with their age at creation, their personality traits, their original Overall potential rating and a bit - yes or no - indicating whether the player eventually made it to the major leagues.
Originally, I just reported the basic results for each personality category (see my first post on this above). They show the percent of players for each of the categories that made the major leagues (keeping in mind that 14.5% of players overall made it). This original table was intriguing, especially since it seemed to show that WIN (desire to win) had a prominent effect on percent making the majors.
But there are a lot of reasons why this could be misleading. So with guidance from drhay53 and especially from injury log, we began to explore this further.
We were trying to figure what really has predictive value and what doesn't. That's what the latest results from the multiple regression are telling us. The p (p stands for probability) values show how confident we are that each of these factors makes an independent contribution toward predicting whether or not a player makes it to the majors. The lower the number, the more confident we are that this is the case.
So yes, in a way we are comparing these to POT because POT is such a powerful predictor of whether or not a player makes the majors that maybe none of the others make any real difference. The table of p values above indicate that there are some personality traits that make a difference independent of POT.
When I get time to work on this a little more, we'll be able to come up with an equation that will give an idea of how much these traits matter. Even though things like work ethic have a contribution independent of POT it may be that the contribution is small enough to be ignored. Or not. That will be the next step.