Quote:
Originally Posted by injury log
This is not true, as you'll see immediately by imagining a simpler example. If I do a test on a huge sample of players, and find that 10% of players from Tuvalu make the Majors, it is completely irrelevant whether 10% of players were originally from Tuvalu, or 0.1%, or 50%. My best estimate of the probability of a Tuvaluan making the Majors is 10%. That probability has absolutely nothing to do with the proportion of players who are from Tuvalu.
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I really don't understand how and why you've come to that conclusion.
If the 2017 draft has 10% of players with a very high WE and 10 years later out of the players that made the ML from that draft, 20% have very high WE, you can conclude that WE does have an effect on development.
But if after 10 years, only 10% of those players that made it have very high WE, then you can conclude that WE has no effect at all.