Quote:
Originally Posted by jpeters1734
my example literally says "make the majors". Regardless, we need the initial creation numbers to get any value from it
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This is not true, as you'll see immediately by imagining a simpler example. If I do a test on a huge sample of players, and find that 10% of players from Tuvalu make the Majors, it is completely irrelevant whether 10% of players were originally from Tuvalu, or 0.1%, or 50%. My best estimate of the probability of a Tuvaluan making the Majors is 10%. That probability has absolutely nothing to do with the proportion of players who are from Tuvalu.