Quote:
Originally Posted by drhay53
My guess is that the reason you're seeing an inversion between high and very high desire to win is that the parameter is unimportant and it's just a statistical fluctuation.
More importantly, though, I wonder what is the correlation between each personality trait? For instance, if you assign a numeric value to each possibility, and calculate the correlation matrix between all of the parameters.
i.e., desire for win may be correlated with work ethic, and while desire for win on it's own is unimportant, it may be correlated with making it to the big leagues only because it's correlated with work ethic.
Also, do you know the full sample size of players?
I realize you said it was an old test and you probably don't have these numbers, but just throwing it out there.
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I went searching through the hard drive and found the original file. I did this almost exactly 1 year ago - which means it was with OOTP16. Not sure if anything changed or was tweaked in OOTP17.
There were 10,603 players.
Yes, it would be interesting to see if any of the traits are correlated. So, did as you suggested and assigned numeric values to each trait and applied Excel's CORREL function. Here are the results:
_____LEA__ LOY........WIN__ GRE__ WE__ INT
LEA....1.000....0.150...-0.138....-0.140...0.003...0.002
LOY....0.150...1.000....-0.155....-0.242...0.101...0.006
WIN.. -0.138...-0.155...1.000.....0.210....0.043..-0.006
GRE..-0.140...-0.242...0.210.....1.000...-0.171..-0.009
WE.....0.003...0.101....0.043.....-0.171...1.000....0.131
INT.....0.002...0.006....-0.006....-0.009....0.131...1.000
There are some correlations. Greed and Loyalty are negatively correlated, which makes sense. Work Ethic is negatively correlated with greed and mildly correlated with intelligence and loyalty. Desire to win is correlated with greed (that kinda makes sense too).
I think it would also be interesting to see how the traits might combine with each other. Would the positive effect of high work ethic counteract a negative effect of low desire to win? Or would one take precedence over the other? I might take a look at that some day.
There were a couple interesting things I noticed when I looked at the data again. Just eyeballing it, Leadership, Intelligence, and Loyalty appear to be normally distributed, each with about the same standard deviation. Greed looks to be normally distributed, but with a larger standard deviation than the others. Work Ethic and Desire to Win are definitely not normally distributed. The are both skewed so that there are considerably more players with "Very Low" for these traits than "Very High" (about 4 times as many).
Also, I hadn't remembered that I did include potential rating for all of the players (with scouting accuracy at 100%). It's a crude and as many have pointed out, flawed, measure of talent or skill, but despite this, it was far better at predicting who made it to the major leagues than personality. I graphed this in Excel and came up with a trend line. The best fit was a logarithmic with this formula:
y = 0.623* LN(x) - 1.8178
x is the potential rating (20-80 scale) and y is the probability of making it to the big leagues.
Plug 80 into this formula and you get 0.912
Plug in 20 and you get 0.049
So an 80 potential player makes it over 90% of the time, whereas a 20 potential player only makes it about 5% of the time. Of course, it won't quite be so clear-cut when you don't have scouting accuracy set at 100%...
Another thing I included was age. This one looks like a step function. College age players (20 and older) make it to the majors more often than high school players (19 and younger)
And so there you have it. Put it all together and ya got yourself a draft strategy!