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GM_CheatSheets · 01-07-2017, 01:48 PM

To evaluate the free agent class, I imported the same data used for the expansion draft spreadsheet to create a board of all MLB and high level MiLB players.

The top two free agents available are 1B Dominic Smith who has an unreal 5.04 batting score, suggesting he is around five standard deviations better than the average hitter. He is the #2 ranked player in MLB and this is pulled down by his negative (below average) fielding and intangibles scores. He is asking for almost $58 million for seven years.

While I probably could fit him into my budget as my only signing, it would also require that I not spend anything on scouting or development, so I won't be doing that. However, I do take it as a positive sign that Smith is unlikely to return to the Mets.

My free agent targets will be more of the bargain bin variety. Below is an overview of my read of the market, what I find interesting about each of these players, and their initial demand.

Jose Altuve, 2B, 32, #196 overall
Altuve is solid defensively with great contact and avoid k's. His demand of $7.5 million for six years is a bit beyond my comfort zone, but I do feel the need to add a proven performer with veteran presence to my infield. I'll keep track of his price.

Masahiro Tanaka, SP, 34, #200 overall
Tanaka has great control and five above average pitches. At 34 years old and with great intangibles, he could be a great veteran presence for my mostly young rotation. His last season leaves a bit to be desired but with strong peripherals (94.1 IP, 5.15 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 2.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, and 1.0 WAR). With his demand of only $1.167 million for one year, it's possible that Tanaka is a bargain as a starter. At worse he looks to be a middle reliever.

Michael Feliz, RP, 29, #239 overall
Feliz has pitched primarily as a reliever, but has the potential to start as he is above average in stuff, movement, and control, and he has three great pitches (fastball 94-96 mph, slider, and changeup). With a 12 (out of 20) stamina rating, I'm surprised he hasn't been used more as a starter already. Last year he threw 80 IP for a 3.38 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 2.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, and 0.8 WAR. His demand of $4 million for four years is a bargain if he can start but would be overpriced as a reliever.

There are also a few minor league players that caught my eye:

Patrick Wiseman, SP, 26, #34 MiLB
Wiseman fits the mold of the higher risk, higher reward pitchers on my team that are young with good stuff and several good pitches but have poor control. Wiseman has the potential to have a great three pitch repertoire (fastball 90-92 mph, curveball, and an already above average but still developing changeup). The majority of his innings last year were in AA where he struggled with control (5.4 BB/9). His demand is $.76 million for one year.

Gilbert Lara, SS, 25, #38 MiLB
Lara's best attributes are his speed and fielding. He has above average power and gap power but is average or below average in the other main batting categories. His demand of $1.3 million for one year is a bit high considering his age doesn't make him much of a prospect and he isn't a sure MLB producer.

Gui Yuan Xu, 1B, 26, #50 MiLB
Xu is average to slightly above average in all the main batting categories. As an international free agent, he doesn't have an MLB track record and is a bit of a risk, but with a demand of $.76 million for one year, he may be worth the risk.

Jake Godfrey, RP, 26, #72 MiLB
Godfrey fits the same mold as Wiseman, with similar AA results. One difference is Godfrey has a plus curveball but slightly less developed repertoire overall. He is also asking for $.76 million for one year.

Ka-fei Qin, CF, 22, #105 MiLB
Qin is another international free agent and is younger with more potential than Xu. If he develops to his full potential, he will be a speedy, high contact, low strikeout outfielder. He is only asking for a MiLB contract so he looks to be an attractive target at this point.

After looking at the available free agents, I searched for players with one year remaining on their contract who I could potentially trade for a turn into a draft pick if they reject a qualifying offer after the season.

The only player that fits this criteria with a reasonable asking price is Brandon Drury, 2B, 30. While he comes in at #392 overall in my customized rankings, his performance has been remarkably consistent for the past three years: putting up 3+ WAR each year and hitting for an average of 108 wRC+, .262 AVG, and 20 HR each year. His ISO and OPS have increased in each of the past three years. His contract has one year remaining at $14 million.

One last thing I will keep an eye on is the asking price for closers with one year left on their contract or that I can sign to a one year contract. If they perform well enough to decline a qualifying offer, this could mean an extra draft pick.

In the next several posts we will see how the offseason plays out...

01-07-2017, 01:48 PM	#14
GM_CheatSheets Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 171	Offseason Plan To evaluate the free agent class, I imported the same data used for the expansion draft spreadsheet to create a board of all MLB and high level MiLB players. The top two free agents available are 1B Dominic Smith who has an unreal 5.04 batting score, suggesting he is around five standard deviations better than the average hitter. He is the #2 ranked player in MLB and this is pulled down by his negative (below average) fielding and intangibles scores. He is asking for almost $58 million for seven years. While I probably could fit him into my budget as my only signing, it would also require that I not spend anything on scouting or development, so I won't be doing that. However, I do take it as a positive sign that Smith is unlikely to return to the Mets. My free agent targets will be more of the bargain bin variety. Below is an overview of my read of the market, what I find interesting about each of these players, and their initial demand. Jose Altuve, 2B, 32, #196 overall Altuve is solid defensively with great contact and avoid k's. His demand of $7.5 million for six years is a bit beyond my comfort zone, but I do feel the need to add a proven performer with veteran presence to my infield. I'll keep track of his price. Masahiro Tanaka, SP, 34, #200 overall Tanaka has great control and five above average pitches. At 34 years old and with great intangibles, he could be a great veteran presence for my mostly young rotation. His last season leaves a bit to be desired but with strong peripherals (94.1 IP, 5.15 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 2.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, and 1.0 WAR). With his demand of only $1.167 million for one year, it's possible that Tanaka is a bargain as a starter. At worse he looks to be a middle reliever. Michael Feliz, RP, 29, #239 overall Feliz has pitched primarily as a reliever, but has the potential to start as he is above average in stuff, movement, and control, and he has three great pitches (fastball 94-96 mph, slider, and changeup). With a 12 (out of 20) stamina rating, I'm surprised he hasn't been used more as a starter already. Last year he threw 80 IP for a 3.38 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 2.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, and 0.8 WAR. His demand of $4 million for four years is a bargain if he can start but would be overpriced as a reliever. There are also a few minor league players that caught my eye: Patrick Wiseman, SP, 26, #34 MiLB Wiseman fits the mold of the higher risk, higher reward pitchers on my team that are young with good stuff and several good pitches but have poor control. Wiseman has the potential to have a great three pitch repertoire (fastball 90-92 mph, curveball, and an already above average but still developing changeup). The majority of his innings last year were in AA where he struggled with control (5.4 BB/9). His demand is $.76 million for one year. Gilbert Lara, SS, 25, #38 MiLB Lara's best attributes are his speed and fielding. He has above average power and gap power but is average or below average in the other main batting categories. His demand of $1.3 million for one year is a bit high considering his age doesn't make him much of a prospect and he isn't a sure MLB producer. Gui Yuan Xu, 1B, 26, #50 MiLB Xu is average to slightly above average in all the main batting categories. As an international free agent, he doesn't have an MLB track record and is a bit of a risk, but with a demand of $.76 million for one year, he may be worth the risk. Jake Godfrey, RP, 26, #72 MiLB Godfrey fits the same mold as Wiseman, with similar AA results. One difference is Godfrey has a plus curveball but slightly less developed repertoire overall. He is also asking for $.76 million for one year. Ka-fei Qin, CF, 22, #105 MiLB Qin is another international free agent and is younger with more potential than Xu. If he develops to his full potential, he will be a speedy, high contact, low strikeout outfielder. He is only asking for a MiLB contract so he looks to be an attractive target at this point. After looking at the available free agents, I searched for players with one year remaining on their contract who I could potentially trade for a turn into a draft pick if they reject a qualifying offer after the season. The only player that fits this criteria with a reasonable asking price is Brandon Drury, 2B, 30. While he comes in at #392 overall in my customized rankings, his performance has been remarkably consistent for the past three years: putting up 3+ WAR each year and hitting for an average of 108 wRC+, .262 AVG, and 20 HR each year. His ISO and OPS have increased in each of the past three years. His contract has one year remaining at $14 million. One last thing I will keep an eye on is the asking price for closers with one year left on their contract or that I can sign to a one year contract. If they perform well enough to decline a qualifying offer, this could mean an extra draft pick. In the next several posts we will see how the offseason plays out...