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GM_CheatSheets · 01-06-2017, 12:07 AM

I'm back after a holiday hiatus lasted much longer than I intended. On a side note, I spent much of the past week sorting through old baseball cards to see if there was anything of value from my childhood collection. This served as a stark reminder of just how hard it is to make it as a major leaguer, even for top prospects and players who put together some exciting early results.

Now back to the topic at hand, I found several areas of improvement for the expansion draft spreadsheet I used, so it will likely be a little while until I have a fixed and debugged version with full documentation ready for release. In positive news, I have released the Amateur Draft and Intl Amateurs spreadsheet with full documentation. You can download it at the GMCheatSheets website.

As you become familiar with my cheatsheets, you will see that I order players by a value consisting of three scores. For batters this includes a batting score, fielding score, and intangibles score. For pitchers this includes a pitching score, dominance score, and intangibles score. Each of these three scores and the combined value give me insight into the overall quality, strengths, and weaknesses of available players.

One issue with the scores I used, causing me to go a little bit off plan was that the dominance score was based on potential pitch ratings and not current pitch ratings. This caused a few pitchers who are best suited currently for relief roles to be rated as starting pitchers. Below is an image of the top 30 players available based on my spreadsheet. The players I drafted are marked with the round selected in. Players selected by Las Vegas are marked "LV."

My top picks:

Bryce Montes De Oca (SP, 26, Round 1)
I used my first pick on a young pitcher who should be in my rotation. He has three plus pitches (fastball 95-97 mph, curveball, and changeup). He has plus stamina, stuff, and movement, though his control is only average. He pitched 87.1 innings as a RP/SP for Tampa Bay with a 4.64 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 3.8 BB/9, and 6.6 K/9. Despite the unimpressive stat line, his ratings, age, and contract make him a solid player to develop or trade down the line.

Kyle Lewis (CF, 27, Round 2)
For my second pick, I skipped down a little on my spreadsheet to the player with the best batting score who plays an up the middle position. With nearly four years of service time, I still get some cheap control of Lewis. Last year was his best offensive season yet; in 482 PA he posted a .267 AVG, .826 OPS, .218 ISO, 126 wRC+, and 1.4 WAR. While he has plus speed and a plus arm, his defensive metrics are below average in both center and right field. If he continues to hit at this pace, he could fetch a good return in a trade.

Damien Magnifico (SP, 31, Round 3)
I circled back to the rotation with my third pick, the presumptive ace of my staff. Like Montes De Oca, Magnifico has a strong assortment of pitches and velocity (98-100 mph), but is only average in control. He has a dominating fastball, above average cutter, average slider, and below average changeup. He is coming off a 105.2 IP season with a 4.17 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 4.9 BB/9, 10.2 K/9, and 1.3 WAR. He mostly pitched out of the bullpen for Milwaukee but made eight starts.

James Kaprielian (SP, 28, Round 4)
Without a lot of standout batters, I stayed focused on building a solid rotation. Kaprielian is more of a pitchability type as he has above average stuff, movement, and control to pair with a solid four-pitch mix (fastball 91-93 mph, great curveball, average slider, and above average changeup). I hope Kaprielian will add a little stability as a lower upside, lower risk rotation member. However, this is also a bet on his peripheral stats and ability to start: 77.1 IP, 2 GS, 5.59 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 2.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.9 WAR.

Dillon Tate (RP/SP, 28, Round 5)
Tate had the highest pitcher score with his plus stuff and above average movement, and control. He also rated high in dominance with a plus fastball 95-97 mph and plus curveball. If his changup can develop into an average offering he could be a part of my rotation, however it is more likely that he pitches high leverage innings out of my bullpen. In 79 IP last year, Tate had a 2.96 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 2.6 BB/9, 10.4 K/9, and 1.2 WAR.

Ryan Mountcastle (3B/MI, 25, Round 6)
Mountcastle is a borderline SS who is best fit for 3B. He rated high in batting score, decent on defense, and plus for intangibles. He has almost three seasons in the majors but has yet to stick as a regular. Last year in 141 PA he had .268 AVG, .848 OPS, .244 ISO, 126 wRC+, and 0.6 WAR.

Drew Mendoza (3B/MI, 25, Round 7)
Mendoza is another borderline SS best fit for 3B. He has only a little more than a year of service time and is more a bet on upside than performance at this point. His best batting rating is in gap power and the others are all average. In 271 PA he had .198 AVG, .614 OPS, .131 ISO, 75 wRC+, and 0.1 WAR. His defense at 3B was above average.

Kyle Tucker (RF, 25, Round 11)
Tucker had the highest batting score of available players as he has average to above average ratings in all five of the main batting categories. He is also average defensively in RF and could put up respectable fielding stats. In 153 PA last year he had .257 AVG, .702 OPS, .129 ISO, 96 wRC+, and 0.3 WAR. His previous season was much better 1.3 WAR in 352 PA.

Christian Vazquez (C, 32, Round 17)
Vazquez was by far the best defensive player available. His fielding score is an other-worldly 2.94. He also is a great veteran presence for the team with great intangibles. Last year in 128 PA he had 243 AVG, .614 OPS, .027 ISO, 73 wRC+, 0.4 WAR. His CERA was 3.15 so hopefully he can help me get the most out of my pitchers and help boost their trade value.

Oddanier Mosqueda (RP, 23, Round 18)
Mosqueda is a player I have my eye on as a potential closer. He has one of the best fastballs in the game 99-101 mph as a lefty. His slider is currently average but has the potential to be among the best in the game. In his rookie year last year he had 83 IP, 4.34 ERA, 4.74 FIP, 3.9 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, and -0.2 WAR.

Overall, there are a few exciting players I was able to add, though even the higher upside players are still limited. Ideally a few of the players will play well enough to be worth something at the trade deadline.

Up next, evaluating the available free agents and designing a plan for offseason signings and potential trades.

01-06-2017, 12:07 AM	#12
GM_CheatSheets Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 171	Expansion Draft Results I'm back after a holiday hiatus lasted much longer than I intended. On a side note, I spent much of the past week sorting through old baseball cards to see if there was anything of value from my childhood collection. This served as a stark reminder of just how hard it is to make it as a major leaguer, even for top prospects and players who put together some exciting early results. Now back to the topic at hand, I found several areas of improvement for the expansion draft spreadsheet I used, so it will likely be a little while until I have a fixed and debugged version with full documentation ready for release. In positive news, I have released the Amateur Draft and Intl Amateurs spreadsheet with full documentation. You can download it at the GMCheatSheets website. As you become familiar with my cheatsheets, you will see that I order players by a value consisting of three scores. For batters this includes a batting score, fielding score, and intangibles score. For pitchers this includes a pitching score, dominance score, and intangibles score. Each of these three scores and the combined value give me insight into the overall quality, strengths, and weaknesses of available players. One issue with the scores I used, causing me to go a little bit off plan was that the dominance score was based on potential pitch ratings and not current pitch ratings. This caused a few pitchers who are best suited currently for relief roles to be rated as starting pitchers. Below is an image of the top 30 players available based on my spreadsheet. The players I drafted are marked with the round selected in. Players selected by Las Vegas are marked "LV." My top picks: Bryce Montes De Oca (SP, 26, Round 1) I used my first pick on a young pitcher who should be in my rotation. He has three plus pitches (fastball 95-97 mph, curveball, and changeup). He has plus stamina, stuff, and movement, though his control is only average. He pitched 87.1 innings as a RP/SP for Tampa Bay with a 4.64 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 3.8 BB/9, and 6.6 K/9. Despite the unimpressive stat line, his ratings, age, and contract make him a solid player to develop or trade down the line. Kyle Lewis (CF, 27, Round 2) For my second pick, I skipped down a little on my spreadsheet to the player with the best batting score who plays an up the middle position. With nearly four years of service time, I still get some cheap control of Lewis. Last year was his best offensive season yet; in 482 PA he posted a .267 AVG, .826 OPS, .218 ISO, 126 wRC+, and 1.4 WAR. While he has plus speed and a plus arm, his defensive metrics are below average in both center and right field. If he continues to hit at this pace, he could fetch a good return in a trade. Damien Magnifico (SP, 31, Round 3) I circled back to the rotation with my third pick, the presumptive ace of my staff. Like Montes De Oca, Magnifico has a strong assortment of pitches and velocity (98-100 mph), but is only average in control. He has a dominating fastball, above average cutter, average slider, and below average changeup. He is coming off a 105.2 IP season with a 4.17 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 4.9 BB/9, 10.2 K/9, and 1.3 WAR. He mostly pitched out of the bullpen for Milwaukee but made eight starts. James Kaprielian (SP, 28, Round 4) Without a lot of standout batters, I stayed focused on building a solid rotation. Kaprielian is more of a pitchability type as he has above average stuff, movement, and control to pair with a solid four-pitch mix (fastball 91-93 mph, great curveball, average slider, and above average changeup). I hope Kaprielian will add a little stability as a lower upside, lower risk rotation member. However, this is also a bet on his peripheral stats and ability to start: 77.1 IP, 2 GS, 5.59 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 2.7 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.9 WAR. Dillon Tate (RP/SP, 28, Round 5) Tate had the highest pitcher score with his plus stuff and above average movement, and control. He also rated high in dominance with a plus fastball 95-97 mph and plus curveball. If his changup can develop into an average offering he could be a part of my rotation, however it is more likely that he pitches high leverage innings out of my bullpen. In 79 IP last year, Tate had a 2.96 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 2.6 BB/9, 10.4 K/9, and 1.2 WAR. Ryan Mountcastle (3B/MI, 25, Round 6) Mountcastle is a borderline SS who is best fit for 3B. He rated high in batting score, decent on defense, and plus for intangibles. He has almost three seasons in the majors but has yet to stick as a regular. Last year in 141 PA he had .268 AVG, .848 OPS, .244 ISO, 126 wRC+, and 0.6 WAR. Drew Mendoza (3B/MI, 25, Round 7) Mendoza is another borderline SS best fit for 3B. He has only a little more than a year of service time and is more a bet on upside than performance at this point. His best batting rating is in gap power and the others are all average. In 271 PA he had .198 AVG, .614 OPS, .131 ISO, 75 wRC+, and 0.1 WAR. His defense at 3B was above average. Kyle Tucker (RF, 25, Round 11) Tucker had the highest batting score of available players as he has average to above average ratings in all five of the main batting categories. He is also average defensively in RF and could put up respectable fielding stats. In 153 PA last year he had .257 AVG, .702 OPS, .129 ISO, 96 wRC+, and 0.3 WAR. His previous season was much better 1.3 WAR in 352 PA. Christian Vazquez (C, 32, Round 17) Vazquez was by far the best defensive player available. His fielding score is an other-worldly 2.94. He also is a great veteran presence for the team with great intangibles. Last year in 128 PA he had 243 AVG, .614 OPS, .027 ISO, 73 wRC+, 0.4 WAR. His CERA was 3.15 so hopefully he can help me get the most out of my pitchers and help boost their trade value. Oddanier Mosqueda (RP, 23, Round 18) Mosqueda is a player I have my eye on as a potential closer. He has one of the best fastballs in the game 99-101 mph as a lefty. His slider is currently average but has the potential to be among the best in the game. In his rookie year last year he had 83 IP, 4.34 ERA, 4.74 FIP, 3.9 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, and -0.2 WAR. Overall, there are a few exciting players I was able to add, though even the higher upside players are still limited. Ideally a few of the players will play well enough to be worth something at the trade deadline. Up next, evaluating the available free agents and designing a plan for offseason signings and potential trades.