[NoOne]

look at your expected slash in Stats and AI on teh right sisde... LTMs area.

if your slugging is signifcantly higher than .400, that's why you are seeing 80+ home runs. (assumes you hit auto-calc LTM or used specific ones of your own design that result in a speific slash line of your own design - in that case don't use the slash from the game but the one you designed) the slash in the game is just based on LT's, so if the LTM's don't jive with those figures the slash will be different than what you see.

if it's ~.399-.400 you will VERY rarely see 50 unles they are 230-250/200 power rating (above and beyond max rating). figure 1-5 in 50 years or somethign like that.

at just ~.405 slugging and all other factors raminaing the same, you do see the typical strong guys (sub-200/200 power) reach 50 hr on occasion, still rare. but, if you put a 230-250 power guy in there he will hit 60 maybe upto 70 range ceiling.

this can also be affected by talent distribution in the league - this affects probability of homeruns relative to ratings. essentially the probability is their piece of the pie (LTM / LT / ratings related to HR relative to all other players in league) and results will vary.

if you have a tone of 230-250 guys in a stong league, they will all get less home runs than if there were just one 230-250 guy in a very weak offensive league - even if the league is likely to have less home runs overall (static ltm would reduce this, but auto-calcing would exagerrate it). (snapshots in time)