Quote:
Originally Posted by adion
Since there are historical rainfall records for most, if not all, US cities and if they are daily records, can't the calculation of probability work? Using the
Average Number of Days With Precipitation numbers for June from Weatherbase.com for Cleveland & L.A. I figure the following: For instance, in Cleveland the average for June was 11.1 days of rain. Therefore the probably of rain was 37%, 11.1 divided by 30. For L.A. 1 day in June the probably chance of rain for a single random day would be 1 divided by 30 or 3.3%. Those percentages are higher than what is in games weather details. I don't know what impact they would have on games. Also, if you could find the actually number of days of rain for each city by year, you could refine it more. I have search for that detailed data here on the interweb but have not yet found it.
Travel Weather Averages (Weatherbase)
How to Calculate Probability (with Cheat Sheets) - wikiHow |
Yes - it could work, though given that the numbers are so much higher than what's in the game, it's likely that we'd see a LOT more weather-related interruptions, something one of the guys back up in the thread mentioned was a problem with earlier editions of OOTP when rain delays were first introduced.
My thought in looking at the data of actual logged events is that it might give us a VERY accurate figure for percent chance it might rain. What's more - I'm interested in seeing the different kinds of weather events - culling out the percentage of each kind of event (showers, drizzle, thunderstorms, etc.) - because I would love to present the developers with some data backing up a suggestion of "let's really beef up the weather and break it out beyond what is in the game now. Here's how we do it from a data perspective..." Something like that.
The weather site where I'm getting the event data also has a complete wind/direction event breakout. One of the things I find to be TOO simplistic in the current setup of weather in OOTP is that is appears to rely on one prevailing wind pattern when setting up a ballpark (not sure how the game engine then randomizes based on the "prevailing" wind pattern) ... but I would love to see how this might shake out. Wrigley Field, for example, is oriented that home plate out to dead center faces directly NE. Knowing how often the wind blows from what direction relative to the stadium - and breaking that out by month (the winds blow differently in April and May at Wrigley than they do in June and July) ...
No idea if this project will bear any fruit or result in any additions to the game, but I think it's worth trying.