Quote:
Originally Posted by BKL
I'd be interested in other's thoughts on this - baseball seems to be a sport where randomness plays a larger role than in some other sports. In other words, it seems more likely in baseball than in other sports were a mediocre but still decent team can make a run in the playoffs and possibly win it all. In football, hockey, and basketball it seems like the more dominating teams over the season are more likely to advance and win the championship.
So, this leads to the next issues, which is how to format a season and playoffs to allow for less randomness, more fairness to stronger teams, and yet still has excitement.
As an example, I tested a 2 league, 4 divisions per league, 4 team per division season. While the playoff hunt was exciting since a lot of teams where in the hunt with so many division, there was also a lot of random - and sometimes even less than .500 teams making it to the championship. This format seemed to "cheapen" the value of playoff championship.
The format I ultimately went with, and I'm pretty happy with results, is 2 leagues, 2 divisions per league, 6 teams per division. There is also a wildcard playoff. Best team in each league gets a "bye" and the other division winner gets home field advantage against the wildcard team. All series are best of 7. I noticed with this format is you almost always get the top 3 teams making a playoff birth.
I play out all my games so I only have 9 seasons finished so far. In those 9 season, the team with the best record in all of baseball won the championship 6 times. The 2nd best team won 1 time, and the wildcard team won 2 times. Of the 9 seasons and 18 potential teams to advance to the Championship, 11 teams of 18 spots were at the top of their league; 5 teams were 2nd best in their league, and 2 teams were 3rd best.
Overall, I'm pleased with the results. The season is exciting with two divisions and a wildcard, yet the playoffs generally give a fair results.
I'd be interested in anyone else's experience and thoughts - and solutions - on this topic - randomness, fairness, and excitement.
Thanks!
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i am not so sure that it has significantly more (read: enough to make a difference for the point you are trying to make) randomness. you'd have to look at volatility.
the NFL is definitely the most volatile with a 16-game schedule from the stand point of one team's record, but the league-wide statistical results for a season are probably fairly consistent though, just like baseball i'd bet. this question can depend on perspective. i would think in this context of your OP, it's more about results of teams making or not making the playoffs - wins/losses.
as i re-read, i think you meant less randomness based on your example, because an undeserving team making the playoffs they need a lot of fortuitous (which could be somethine detrimental happening to the competition) random things to occur. if it happens more often, then there is more randomness (not in reference to # of teams that make their respective playoffs - that would need to be considered in order to compare between leagues)
i definitely agree on the cheapening of playoffs when too many teams get in. i usually shoot for 1/4th to 1/3rd of the teams making it - the playoff format affects this decision... i don't want bye weeks in teh playoffs. i think it's silly when a ~half or more of the league makes it, like hockey or most fantasy football leagues. for reference: 28teams (14/14), a balanced schedule, no divisions and 4 teams from each subleague make the playoffs. i rarely see a team below .520-.540 as the last team in. i don't think i've ever seen a .500 or worse team make it in more years than i care to mention over a few reincarnations.
"So, this leads to the next issues, which is how to format a season and playoffs to allow for less randomness, more fairness to stronger teams, and yet still has excitement. "
It depends on some personal preferences. interleague, balanced, dh rules the same, etc etc... how far do you want to go to have the most even set of rules for all teams to follow and reduce the influence of factors that aren't on the field.
the most extreme way would be a balanced schedule and equal rules in both leagues. also, the field factors would have to be normalized.
do you want one team benefiting from fly balls to left field being home runs for 81 games and others in that subleague only benefitting from it for a handful of games?
if the goal is to have the most deserving teams making the playoffs as much as the game of baseball as it is played on teh field allows, then you need to make sure it's 100% equal from the start. they need to play each other all the same amount of times. they need the same rules the same schedules as far as days off (nothing we can do about injuries / weather).
*we can stop rainouts, but logically it isn't reasonable... same with injuries. those options should be in the game as they are now, in case that's not understood.
divisions just cause a possibility for random schedule-related things to influence results. even if you have a balanced schedule and they are mostly asthetic... but not quite, unless you customize your playoffs to make sure playoffs teams are chosen by wins, not a division lead. these are for TV and spectators... an effort to increase fanaticism / rivalries etc., and nothing to do with rewarding the best based on an equal playing field.
so work back from there on the things you still want to keep, and you will have the environment tailored to your wishes that will provide the most even playing field for all teams and to allow just hte randomness between the lines affect the outcome of the regular season.
lots of reasons to do things differently, and impossible to predict for each person. what we feel or prefer doesn't change facts. some things are so small they may only occur 1/10,000 years... at what point do we see negligible returns? that's a matter of opinion in many cases.
as far as excitement, i'd assume it's nearly the same chance each season to have X number of teams in a tight competition at the end of the year.. the only way to increase that is to purposefully hamstring the leading teams or something.