Quote:
Originally Posted by NoOne
trust the ratings, unless he is throing 3 different fastballs and nothing else. look over scouting reports... if you see a stead decline of more than 1 year... he's likely falling apart.
if stats only and he has 2 cy youngs, trust his history. stats only still shows velocity right? use that to gauge decline in skills if after age 30... really anytime after age 28 and above or whenever development ends.
it's definitely a random result unless he has regressed talent-wise. at 34-35 that can possibly happen in a short period of time... since he was lights out again, i'd bet the first year was definitely just bad luck... the 2nd year it's possible he degraded during the season.
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The playoffs, regardless of talent level, are basically always a crapshoot anyway. They're designed for luck almost specifically. Any team can catch fire and start hitting really well or pitching beyond their level at any time.
My point is it's not far fetched for a great pitcher to struggle in high leverage and playoff situations. However, some do and some don't. It's not the games error however.