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injury log · 04-06-2016, 03:37 AM

OOTP has always undervalued relievers.

There seems to be a misconception in this thread that you can evaluate relievers by WAR. It's not even clear how to calculate WAR for relievers - do you just evaluate the pitcher's performance (independent of the score), or do you measure how much the reliever's performance helped the team actually win?

If a reliever puts up the same stats as Clayton Kershaw in 1/3 of the innings, is he worth 1/3 as much as Kershaw? Usually no. The reliever can pitch all his innings when a great performance would be extremely valuable, in one-run games. Kershaw can't do that - his Manager has no way to know before he pitches if the game will be a 15-0 game or a 1-0 game. So a lot of Kershaw's great innings aren't worth very much. But if the Manager isn't an idiot, the great reliever's innings are all worth a lot. Some reliever WAR calculations incorporate these leverage effects to account for this difference (and doing that is debatable - is it a mopup reliever's fault his Manager doesn't use him in close games?), but I suspect OOTP WAR does not.

But the even more important reason great relievers are more valuable than WAR suggests, at least to contending teams, is because of the playoffs. Your best relievers can pitch more often in the playoffs because of all the days off. And playoff innings are the most valuable of all. WAR will underestimate the value a reliever brings to a playoff team, because it will underestimate how many innings that reliever can pitch in the playoffs.

04-06-2016, 03:37 AM	#32
injury log Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Toronto Posts: 9,162	OOTP has always undervalued relievers. There seems to be a misconception in this thread that you can evaluate relievers by WAR. It's not even clear how to calculate WAR for relievers - do you just evaluate the pitcher's performance (independent of the score), or do you measure how much the reliever's performance helped the team actually win? If a reliever puts up the same stats as Clayton Kershaw in 1/3 of the innings, is he worth 1/3 as much as Kershaw? Usually no. The reliever can pitch all his innings when a great performance would be extremely valuable, in one-run games. Kershaw can't do that - his Manager has no way to know before he pitches if the game will be a 15-0 game or a 1-0 game. So a lot of Kershaw's great innings aren't worth very much. But if the Manager isn't an idiot, the great reliever's innings are all worth a lot. Some reliever WAR calculations incorporate these leverage effects to account for this difference (and doing that is debatable - is it a mopup reliever's fault his Manager doesn't use him in close games?), but I suspect OOTP WAR does not. But the even more important reason great relievers are more valuable than WAR suggests, at least to contending teams, is because of the playoffs. Your best relievers can pitch more often in the playoffs because of all the days off. And playoff innings are the most valuable of all. WAR will underestimate the value a reliever brings to a playoff team, because it will underestimate how many innings that reliever can pitch in the playoffs.