Quote:
Originally Posted by catcherjul
I saw this too and asked this weekend why. Markus told me that they changed the way prospect develop. Instead of 5-6 5* guys that almost everytime develop to what they are supposed to, we have much more potential superstars but just a fraction of them will actually live up to the expectation.
I saw a lot of guys in my league that went from 5* at 17-18 years old and develop into 2-3* guys, just like in real life.
I see a lot of guys that goes in 10-20th round that becomes 3-5* stars but finally never develop.
After two years, I find the potential frequently changing. I can see a guy with 5* potenial at 17, 4* at 18, 4.5* at 19, 3* at 20, 3.5* at 21, 3* at 22...etc
Couple of exemple here
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I did a study of this a while ago, how much career WAR on average you get out of a guy based on where he is in the draft, and how important it is to get a high pick, not just a first rounder. The guys after the first half of the first round get gradually lower in potential value, but it's still pretty random. There are professionals who spend their entire lives trying to find the answers in this, the rewards are amazing if they get it right, and like much of baseball even the best are doomed to fail most of the time.
I don't have all my data any longer, but here's a sample
