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I think that this columnist has a point, but it doesn't necessarily make a conviction impossible. The main problem for Kobe is to what extent did he deliberately deceive the authorities about what happened that night? There are reports that his story changed and if it changed a whole lot, it will cloud the rest of his testimony, if he takes the stand (which i think he will).
To me, the prosecution has a couple of problems. First of all, they had Michael Baden, the forensic pathologist from the HBO show Autopsy (excellent show), on one of the news networks the other day and he was saying it's virtually impossible to determine consent from vaginal/anal injuries suffered during intercourse. So unless she has other injuries that are overwhelming, it's going to be hard for the prosecution to show the extent to which she resisted.
According to the LA Times timeline, Kobe had sex with the alleged victim, then had surgery, then hung around the hotel all day, going in and out of the lobby, then went to the hotel restaurant and had dinner, played chess with his bodyguards and spoke to other people in the restaurant for about 3 hours. He didn't check out of the hotel until after he was questioned by the police and taken to the hospital for tests. Even the day after the alleged rape, he wasn't acting like he did anything wrong, which is hard for someone without any priors to do.
When Kobe left the courthouse yesterday, he got an ovation like he just dunked on Tim Duncan. His celebrity seems like it will be omnipresent. If this is the case, I would imagine that's a huge problem for the prosecution.
Time will tell...
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