I have finally returned to OOTP! After 5 years and raising my girls, I finally have some free time and a new computer. What the community has done with facegen since we started experimenting with it back in the day is really impressive. Markus has done a great job with his fantastic franchise.
To the topic at hand, it is important to evaluate when runs are scored. In the MLB the first inning has 15% more runs per innings than the average, followed by the 6th at ~7%, the 5th at 6%, and then the 4th. As expected, the 7th-9th are the lowest scoring innings because of the reliever specialization.The first inning is most likely a factor of lineup selection as the first inning always involves the best hitters in the absence of pitchers hitting. The 4th-6th are an artifact of tiring starting pitchers and hitters becoming familiar with the starting pitcher's arsenal.
These facts can be utilized to revise how pitchers and lineups are used. Since the start of the MLB, starting pitchers have been considered the team's best pitchers, face the most batters, and command the largest salaries. But in the last 30 years, specialization of pitching has demonstrated that limiting innings and favorable matchups can be even more effective pitched innings as evident by the lower than average runs allowed in the 7th-9th innings. Another important fact of baseball is players can not return to the game after being substituted, this regularly forces teams to end games without their best pitcher on the mound and substitute hitters at the plate.
So how can these facts be utilized to best manage a pitching staff? My recommendations, better utilizes the last 5 player on a roster and places the best pitchers on a team in more critical positions for team success than they are used in conventional pitching staffs. To avoid confusion, I will only address the non-DL version of baseball.
1st-3rd innings
Each team has a bullpen reliever that can open it up for about 30-40 pitches and get through 1-3 innings without tiring enough to return to duty in 3-4 days. These pitchers are usually at the back of the bullpen that get mop up duty in blow outs. Rather than allowing the opposing team to choose their favorable L/R matchup in their lineup for the next six innings based on an announced conventional SP, roll out a 1-2 inning reliever as the starting pitcher. Given that most opposing managers will put their best hitters in the top of the order, a manager can start a favorable lefty or righty pitcher given an opponent's best hitters. This should reduce the first inning runs and allow the team to hold their best pitchers fresh for later innings. To prepare for later innings, the conventional SP can go straight to the bullpen and warmup in the first inning.
4th-6th innings
Assuming the opening pitcher gets through the first and potentially more innings, the last hitter on the roster can pinch hit for the opening pitcher to be replaced by the conventional starting pitcher. This would arrange for the starting pitcher with a normal 6 inning quality start to make it to the 7th or 8th inning rather than the 6th. This would stagger the gradual decline of the starting pitcher out to the 6th-8th innings rather than the 4th-6th. A variant to this would be to limit the conventional SP to 4-5 innings thus reducing the necessary roster spots for starters down to 4 instead of 5.
7th-9th innings
The back end of bullpen has been refined in recent years to a very successful formula. This approach should not be changed as the best pinch hitters and setup and closers are not used in earlier innings.
With this as a framework for in game pitch staff management, the team structure can be redesigned.
Current teams carry 11-12 pitchers (5 SP, 1 closer, 2 setup men, 1 lefty specialist, 2-3 long relievers or spot starters). The new roster recommendation:
(3 opening pitchers, 3 conventional SPs, 1 closer, 2 setup men, 1 lefty specialist, 1-2 long relievers or mop up pitchers)
What this does is allow teams to save the money they would normally spend for back end rotation pitchers on above average relievers. Given that RPs make roughly 2/3 as much as SPs, this could free up sufficient money to focus on better talent in the rotation and at the plate.
So how does this apply to OOTP and how do you simulate this concept in OOTP? I have tested this concept with using pitch count limits with using 3 man rotations populated with middle relievers and quick hooks while moving 3 SPs to middle relievers that are used more frequently and slow hooks. These moves allowed enough cash for top shelf setup men and closers. With these changes, I saw significant advantage over opposing teams that spend excessively for SPs while ignoring the value RPs.
Variants:
A couple interesting variant to this concept:
1) Instead of starting a bullpen reliever while on the road, start the last pinch hitter at pitching and hit him in the top two positions. This will totally disguise what pitcher you intend to start, and allow the eventual pitcher at bats be pushed later into game and also in a position to sacrifice bunt for the heart of the lineup. This variant works best for an AL team in the world series as it takes away the home field advantage from the NL team and also can be worked with a traditional starting rotation approach.
2) Another option is to pair left and right handed starters and play them in the same game. This takes advantage of forcing the opposing team to play their lineup hand first and then allows the team to faux start a SP for a limited to force the opposing team to burn their platoon players early.
A couple footnotes:
A study on the evolution of pitching staff usage.
All Innings Are Not Created Equal: How Run-Scoring Varies By Inning - Beyond the Box Score