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I believe that potential ratings can change. I'm not 100% sure but I'm pretty sure that at least in my NHL game that my player's potential has gone from 4 to 4 and a half stars or similar to that.
As for junior leagues, I haven't played one yet, but I imagine that there aren't as many high ceiling players. Most of the lower tier NHL players in the game are 3 stars or so, and most junior players don't make it to the NHL, so a 2 star or 2 and a half star rating might actually be accurate.
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