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i can find plenty of evidence that minimizes the tradiotional weight that is applied to speed at the top of the lineup, but it's still a sliding scale of 2 factors (or more). an obp that is .XXX larger can outweigh any possible speed difference, but it's a horizon... a curve... theoretically you can find the breakeven point for any variables given. you can find a point where a speed differential outweighs a .050 obp difference between 2 players... it may or may not be realistic, but you can find it. that calculated value isn't meant to be chiseled in stone, but merely a best guess from the equation and how the data was collected etc... it is comparing apples and oranges after converting them both to pears.... or somethign like that.
you say it ruins lineups and there is no sense or reason to them. try simming the same year over and over again maybe 20-50 times with the AI lineup. then, repeat with your lineup. turn off trading, injuries and development - ensure the same players are used and they don't change randomly. finally, compare runs scored. otherwise, it's just a guess as to it being a ruined lineup.
you can test different things while following this general setup. test 2 different substitution lineups - the ai's choice and your choice. a large enough sample will provide you with an answer. otherwise, you can't say with certainty that ootp is using terrible lineups.
at this time, so many concepts of baeball are based on faith and the eye-test. neither of these things are acceptable as evidence.
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The difference is approaching baseball by numbers of games or each game at a time. IRL each game plays out as more important than several games because you're in the game, not standing back & looking at several games. Some people (statisticians) are objectively looking at the big picture & making claims. But people on the field can't do that in the middle of a game. So the difference in opinion--no argument, no sentiment, no conservative vs progressive--is about how much a person wants to play a cpu immersed in one game as opposed to how much another person wants to stay objective & make decisions that way. The former person should be assumed to be out of place playing a game called Out Of The Park on a computer which allows simming several games at once. Yet where is that former person supposed to go for simming one pitch at a time & trying to immerse? There is nowhere else because no game with the historical/current data OOTP offers exists for us. In other words, we only want the data because we would use it to try to immerse in a simulation that gives us the feeling we are playing/managing a real game. At which point, all the objective stats over full seasons is less important, or rather is only important to supply the gamer with a base upon which to sim this real life experience.
The only way to immerse is to temporarily forget about full year stats--e.g. use long term stats with a limit on how important they are. The cutting off point, as you so well put it, is in batting orders. That is where the field manager is, or should be allowed to use their field insight, their real-time experience (gut instinct, whatever you want to call it) to make the final decisions on how at least the batting is going to proceed. It's limited, as there are many other things that happen in the course of a game. I find myself fighting AI in OOTP (compromising) by allowing AI to control most decisions during in-game play (in one game, playing it out, pitch by pitch) in order to get a feeling that a real game is happening: in order to have some random, or semi-random things occur (actually some things based on stats). But when it comes to substitutions, I take more control. This requires going into Options mid-game & turning AI control of play off to make certain substitutions & then turning AI back on to allow the game to give me some interesting twists.
For example, I want to know what AI thinks should be a pitcher sub, so I leave it on. But I know from OOTP experience that it wont sub my better fielding catcher until it's often too late (sabotage!) so I put him in manually. Believe it or not, a better fielding catcher will make pitchers perform better, which can be vital to winning close games: not allowing the starter/bullpen to throw away leads. I find this too often to be a disturbing facet of OOTP & I've given it a pet name: the "catch up algorithm."
I hate the catch up algorithm because it feels like a long term stat got in the way of real-time managing: where stupid decisions are made during a game in order for AI to be sure to have its balanced stats at the end of the season. (All the ratings, thus the performances, are based in one way or another on full season stats. Even though those stats are tangled up with full team performances in complex ways. Which is, of course, the inherent problem with player stats: how much is it actually the player? ) I'm so used to this happening (throwing away leads) that I can predict it during the course of a game. Consequently, I'm on guard for it & if I play games this way, warding off the algorithm from making poor close game decisions, I win, win, win. Basically I've figured out a cheat. (exploited a weakness in the computer game) But I never meant to cheat. (Please, your honor!
)All I was trying to do was overcome what seemed like a weakness in allowing baseball performances to be based (to play out) completely on stats. All I was doing was behaving like a good manager.