Quote:
Originally Posted by NoOne
about adding .001:
okay, this is all hypothetical: let's say K's for a 28t/156g league over 100 years averages to ~32,750. adding .001 to that LTM will result in 33,600 average over 100 years in second sim, or an 850 increase. if it were at 1.000 you would expect .001 of 33,000 (pretend it's the league total in settings), which is +33 SO's not +850 SO. it's so drastically different there is no explanation. you just have to roll with it.
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Your point that the feature has no firm basis in something clearly physical is 100% correct. So your academic argument (which I have made myself many times) has basis.
However, the result you're describing has a very clear and mathematical explanation. It is because "Totals" are not "Totals." "Totals are ratio-based modifiers that create stats based on the talent levels in the world you're playing with. You do not need to just roll with it. In order to know that a .001 tweak of a modifier to strikeouts will do, however, you need to know the base League Total for AB and K--which can well be different from one league to another. If you know these values, the values of all the other core League Totals, and the average ratings of all the hitters and pitchers who are going to the plate, you can very accurately predict the output of the league without running any sims.
You're also correct that three seasons of sim isn't enough to guarantee perfection in doing what the feature says it's doing, but in the sloppy world of randomness, it generally serves the purpose of stabilizing statistical output so that all but the most mathematical purist are happy with the results. (In addition, I'm purely guessing that Markus and the gang do more than merely sim stats ... shrug).
Many things can cause issues with stats output. Player talents can vary from era to era, for example.