10-23-2015, 07:38 PM
|
#40
|
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 2,727
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoOne
a big hint:
try to fit the league to a avg/obp/slug and ERA baseline that you target.
the resulting averages of various stats related to LTM should be close to your targets, but don't get tunnel vision if they are a bit off. e.g. if you wanted 4500hr/year and after 200 years the average was within 50hr, no big deal if everything else looks awesome.
i say this because changing one LTM can have ramifications on other(s), and you will have to adjust potentially many other LTM to get back to the avg/obp/slug and era you already acheived, but decided 50 too few hr was an easy fix... you will realize later that was small potatoes in a ~30team leauge relative to the work to correct it, LoL.
_______________
misc info:
make sure you use at least 100 years of data when changing LTMs. even 150-200 is a better idea. some stats do normalize before others, but better safe than sorry. let it run overnight.
when you use 20-50yrs the averages likely won't be accurate enough to use with confidence.
e.g. if in 30 years you had a 5-10 year period of exceedingly talented players in your league without an equally polar 5-10years of less talent, this might result in you lowering the LTMs more than you intended. the sample isn't large enough to account for the effects of league turnover.
keep a history of suggestions from whatever spreadsheet you are using and a history of used LTM and the resulting long-term sim averages for the related statistic.
you'll find that even if you change 1 LTM +/-.001 and nothing else, it may not be in perfect scale as the math suggests. e.g. i found a point where .001 to the K's LTM added 20+X more than .001/<original LTM>. instead of getting an extra 30some strikeouts, i got ~600-800 more. the memory is faded, but the scale is close enough. in addition to league settings/structure etc... if you change something like Hits LTM, this point i describe will shift, so i can't tell you where that line exists for Strikeout LTM at any particular time and setting. just know it can happen and choose to live with the significant increase/decrease or revert to the previous LTM setting. anyway, a history of what was suggested and what you used helps you notice these things.
taking an average of them isn't necesarily the best use, either... e.g. averaging sets of LTM that have different Hits LTM values is not going to work out well. what it helps with is seeing where various proverbial "cliffs" are as you change as little as .001 for a particular LTM.
|
If I upload file, would you take a look at it? I'm not the best at figuring this stuff out.
|
|
|