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Passed ball included, Fielder stealing home. Fielder is much quicker than most think, when he gets moving, he isn't a bad athlete. A bad passed ball can get far enough away from the catcher it isn't hard to see Fielder scoring. On an actual, active steal of home, Bartolo Colon hitting a home run is far more likely; active steals of home are rare in any circumstance. It is hardly unusual for a pitcher to luckily lean into one the right way and benefit from a favorable wind, pitch and park effects.
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