[voxpoptart]

Oliver: I'm out of town for two weeks, and my data is also corrupted by the fact that when I notice the unraveling happening, I take steps to undo it. So you will have to trust that I am not lying to you (why would I, exactly?) when I give you examples.

The best 20-year-old in my fictional league's opening season, worth 4-5 wins, was 2B Alberto Quetzalcoatl. On a scale of 20, his Con/Gap/Pow/Eye were something like 10-15-10-16, with room to grow. Late in season two I noticed he was in a long slump, checked his ratings, and they were more like 9-13-9-14, with no room to grow.

Second-best at that age was CF Himmi Nguvumali, worth 3-4 wins with ratings something like 10-11-12-11 and, again, room to grow. Once I looked at Quetzalcoatl, I looked at Nguvumali and saw, again, general decline (9-11-11-10?) and potential that had fallen equal to current. In one of the two cases, I found on fixing it - I forget which player - the potential had a lot of falling still to go. As in, prepping for a permanent trip to the minor leagues.

LF Hoshi Nagata was 21 in the first season and was good for two years, a 3-win player with ratings similar to Nguvumali. Third year, I realize halfway through that he is hitting .180 with nothing to compensate -- and his ratings translate, according to the editor, to .225 with nothing to compensate. His potential is again below his actual. In fixing his potential I cut his current ratings, because of his bad performance. He remains below .200 halfway into the league's fourth season.

Tom Collins, 21, was a starting CF in the league's first year; hit .300 (mostly singles), stole bases, played good defense. A year later he was hitting .250 in AA, and his potential was still headed downward.

That's four cases you'd have a hard time matching in 100 years of real baseball. None were caused by injury.