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This is two problems, by the way. (1) Healthy (or mostly-healthy) major leaguers in their early 20s should generally, to model real life, hold steady or improve. The younger they are, the more likely they should be to improve *vastly*; in real life, a list of 20-year-old MLB regulars is a list half consisting of Hall of Famers. In OOTP, a 20-year-old in the majors is more likely to be reduced to a AA-ball player by Random Talent Changes. (Yes, I know about B.J. "Melvin" Upton, who became a regular at 22, still pretty young. He's an extreme case, and even he's still a tolerable major-league bench player. I see worse youthful declines all over OOTP.)
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This is not true. 95% of all rookies who have great years end up slumping late in the year and suck completely their sophomore year. This happens because the league learns their weaknesses and exploits them from then on. Most players never recover from that hump and only a few actually make it past year 4 in the majors. i would say 4% become average players, 0.95% go on to be above average stars, and 0.05% go on to become superstars.
No way in hell that half of 20 year olds go on to the HoF. Almost all of them fizzle out in real life but you dont realize it because their names and performance is never publicized and because no one collects baseball cards any more (else you would know that most dont get far at all). They just disappear and no one knows the better.
One should also take rookies of the roid era as a grain of salt. Everything from the late 90s to today is pretty much garbage due to cheating and no one had more access than rookies between 1995 to 2010 (but they were still playing against mostly honest players thus their stats are hugely inflated). The league needs to level the playing field. Either legalize all drugs or perma-ban all players who are caught without exception. I would also penalize their teams and take away any awards they won if they had a cheater on their team (to make teams be more proactive about the issue). Pick one and go with it.
I agree about random player development. It gets frustrating sometimes.