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I usually take a look at the pitcher's "hold runners" rating and then look at the catcher's arm. If you're facing a pitcher with an average rating, but a guy like Yadier Molina behind the plate, you're wise not to get too aggressive. However, if you've got a really fast runner, you might be inclined to be more aggressive especially in the later innings when the pitcher starts tiring.
I usually pay attention to his control. If he starts throwing a lot of balls and getting behind in the count, that's a good time to think about a steal. Also, if you've got a good contact hitter with a 2-1 or 3-2 count, that's a good time to call for a hit-and-run.
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