Quote:
Originally Posted by ra7c7er
IMO nearly every young player should get "better" every year till they hit roughly 25-26ish. Then it becomes a bit more random and after a player hits mid thirties most players should be declining. You could still have random jumps or fall backs but for the most part you should see trends.
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Typically, young players get better until about 25, at which point they stabilize for the rest of their 20's, but far from all.
But what really made me feel a need to comment was that you suggested that non-random decline should tend to happen in the mid thirties, when that would be horribly unrealistic. People don't realize how fast decline begins in real life.
Most players who peak as average players are near-worthless by 31-32. Most players who peak as good players, "minor stars" so to speak, are near-worthless by 33-34.
We don't think of them, because they're no longer in the league and, while good (at least the "minor stars" were good in their prime), are forgettable (think Kevin McReynolds or Ryan Klesko). Even those who were the major stars and could remain valuable well into their 30's were almost never still major stars after their mid-thirties.
Everyone knows that Willie Mays was a superstar, one of the top 20 players ever (a conservative estimate, as most would say top 10). But his last superstar-like year was in 1965, when he was 34. He was still very good in '66 at 35, but if that had been his best year he wouldn't be the all-time great he is. When he was 36 in '67 he was nothing special at all, except that he could still at least be useful at 36, which is rare.
I know the OOTP devs know this, but the public should realize it: Almost all real life players decline badly after 30; and unless a player is a superstar in his prime, he'll almost always be useless by about 34.